Markets

EM ended last week on a sour note. The most important factor for global risk appetite has become China, with the Fed tightening cycle now on the back burner.  Our base case remains that China muddles through, but policymakers there...

The US stock market and the oil market appear joined at the hip. The Great Graphic here, created on Bloomberg, shows the correlation of the two markets.  It is near 0.77, which is the highest since September 2013.  The correlation...

China’s southern province, Guangdong, is emerging as a globally important innovation zone and consumer market. It moves into the future as it builds a post-industrial society. The forces that once boosted Guangdong’s dramatic economic boom – industrialization, booming world trade,...

1) The Hong Kong dollar posted its biggest two-day decline since 1992, 2) Bank Indonesia restarted its easing cycle, cutting rates for the first time since February 2015, 3) Poland’s current Monetary Policy Council (RPP) held its last policy meeting,...

Last year was a high voltage year for Indian politics. Debates and deliberations across political and non-political arenas focused on the values and institutions forming the bedrock of Indian democracy. Questions of tolerance, secularity, the right to free speech and...

Last year could be remembered as a glorious year for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.  As Abe ended 2014 with a surprise visit to Yasukuni Shrine, provoking harsh criticism from close neighbours, many anticipated that the most daunting task for...

The winner of the upcoming 2016 Philippine elections looks set to inherit an underwhelming legacy of lacklustre GDP growth and a shortage of infrastructure. Once again, government under-spending on projects, lower exports, outflow of portfolio investments and stagnant agricultural production...

As China’s anti-corruption drive is expanding from the public and corporate sector to financial institutions, some argue that it is hurting economic growth. In reality, it is the rule of law that can ensure China’s resilient growth. As China’s anti-corruption...

In his first calendar year as Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi focused on economics. Through high profile trips abroad and ambitious proposals at home, Modi maintained an air of energy and initiative, but the results were modest. Meantime, domestic...

It has been a rather challenging year for the Malaysian economy. Political disruptions and economic shocks have rocked the nation.  Prime Minister Najib Razak has been strenuously committed to undertaking fiscal reform. He has repeatedly stressed the importance of reducing...

EM starts the week under broad-based pressure.  We downplay reports of competitive devaluations under way because of China’s FX moves, however.  Many in EM in experiencing negative terms of trade shocks, and so their currencies are expected to depreciate.  We...

Developments in China seemed to overshadow other considerations as investors returned from the New Year.  The offices were open and desks manned, yet many did not appear to be prepared to re-deploy resources.  The lack of participation helps explain last...

On 18 December 2015, the Abe administration announced details of the much-anticipated agriculture, forestry and fisheries-related supplementary budget. It contains a list of expenditure items designed to assist the agricultural sector to respond to the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership...

1) Chinese policymakers introduced circuit-breakers for its equity markets on Monday, but then suspended them on Thursday, 2) PBOC finally fixed USD/CNY lower (albeit marginally) Friday after eight straight days of higher fixings, 3) Tensions have risen on the Korea...

In architecture, there is a dictum that ‘form follows function’. The architect decides a building’s use and then designs the building for those purposes. In Vietnam’s process of economic reforms, the reverse is often the case — ‘function follows form’....