The Turkish Election and Central Bank News Headline the EM Space
1) The AKP won a majority in the Turkish elections; 2) Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 bps to 5.25% and added some new FX measures to its arsenal; 3) China will lift a freeze on IPOs by...
Saber-rattling over the South China Sea Could Delay Regional Plans
Recent naval manoeuvres and land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands have drawn attention to the risk of incidents at sea leading to growing tensions and even conflict in the South China Sea. On Tuesday 27 October 2015, the United...
Hauling (in) the Mail by Going Public
The US$12 billion listing of state-owned Japan Post Holdings overnight makes it the largest initial public offering (IPO) in the world this year. In choosing to list its postal business, Japan follows the lead of Britain, which privatised the Royal...
India Facing Trade and Investment Diversion
The conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations in early October 2015 has marked another substantive milestone in the global trade order. Rising doubts over domestic ratification aside, the world is keeping a wary eye open as it tries to...
China’s President Xi Sticks with a New Growth Plan
Overnight, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave the strongest indication yet the country will revise down its economic growth goal to 6.5%. They will have an official target when China releases its highly anticipated 13th five-year plan in March next year,...
No Change in Rates from the RBA for Now
The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2%, but said there was scope for a rate cut down the line. In a statement on the RBA website, governor...
China’s Possible Population Problems
The long-anticipated abolition of China's one-child policy is a first step in the right direction. However, they can do much more. In the West, the criticism of the one-child policy is that it is a "cruel Communist strategy." In reality,...
Time for a Rethink of U.K. Food Policy
It is a strange world if I can greet with pleasure two reports, which actually shame my own country. However, alas, it is so. In the UK, two excellent examinations of food poverty have been published just as Westminster is...
Australia to China: We (may) Choose You
There has been speculation that Australia’s recent change in prime minister from Tony Abbott to Malcolm Turnbull will mean a shift in Australia’s choice of partners in Asia. The change does not mean that Australia will now ‘choose’ China over...
China Aims for ‘Moderately Prosperous’
China’s new development blueprint seeks to realize a moderately prosperous society by 2020. At the recently concluded Fifth Plenum of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee, the “Four Comprehensives” became the grand blueprint for the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20)....
Don’t Worry, China has a Plan
China’s latest five-year plan, the details of which were endorsed at last week’s fifth plenum, aims to double the nation’s GDP and per capita income by 2020 (from 2010 numbers). The 2020 deadline is important because it is the final...
Turkey Shines in the EM Space on Election Results
EM starts the week on a mixed footing. Turkey is the star performer from the surprise result of the elections that ended the period of political uncertainty, but there was limited spill over to other EM markets. Energy prices are...
Japan Holds the Key to Regional Peace and Economic Cooperation
International scrutiny of Japan’s foreign policy direction and defence policy posture has been particularly intense in recent months. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s 14 August statement on the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, and security legislation passed...
India is on the Outside of the TPP Looking In
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreed to on 5 October 2015 covers almost a third of world trade and 40 percent of global GDP. By not being part of the TPP, India risks losing out. According to a Center on Global...
Allowing a Second Child Ends an Unpopular Policy
China is scrapping its one-child policy and officially allowing all couples to have two children. While some may think this heralds an overnight switch, the reality is that it is far less dramatic. This is, in fact, merely the latest...