Markets

A consistent feature of global analyses of Africa’s economic prospects is their fickleness. A consistent feature of global analyses of Africa’s economic prospects is their fickleness. In the years since the global financial crisis in 2008, forecasts about Africa have...

Japan is experiencing a serious demographic crunch. About 27 percent of the Japanese population is over the age of 65 and there are 1.4 million fewer people today than there were in 2007, when the total population peaked at 128...

Recent months have seen a continuing increase in military activities in the South China Sea, particularly by the United States and China, but also by ‘bit players’ like India and Japan. These activities only serve to heighten tensions in the...

This Great Graphic shows the price people are willing to pay to bet that the UK votes to leave the EU at the June 23 referendum on the PredictIt events markets.  We included the lower chart to give some sense...

The Philippines has concluded its elections with Rodrigo Duterte coming from out of nowhere only to gallop passed better-known political figures and snatch the presidency. Duterte was a long-serving mayor of Davao City and, except for a brief tenure as...

India has revamped its Middle East policy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has laid the foundation for strategic interdependencies with the region by focusing on counterterrorism cooperation, deeper economic and security ties, and by engaging the large Indian diaspora. India has...

Editor’s note: The U.S. economy added a disappointing 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest number in more than five years, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The weak numbers suggest a June interest rate hike – which...

EM ended the week on a firm note after the US jobs shocker.  While we view the weak reading as a fluke, shifting market perceptions of Fed tightening risk should keep EM bid near-term.  However, we think the July FOMC...

In the past year, investors have seen emerging markets thrive, plunge, re-emerge and re-decline. Despite the volatile short-term story, the fundamentals of the emerging market assets remain strong. Last fall, the Wall Street Journal reported that rich nations were “losing...

In the EM equity space, China (+4.1%), Brazil (+3.0%), and Hong Kong (+1.8%) have outperformed this week, while Poland (-2.6%), Russia (-2.1%), and Qatar (-1.9%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 1.4% this week while...

It is hard to find any bad news in the latest quarterly GDP result. GDP growth of 1.1% for the March quarter (0.9% trend) puts annual growth just over 3%. The Federal Budget and subsequent Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Outlook (PEFO)...

This year’s Africa Day message from African Union Commission chairperson Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma affirms the organisation’s commitment to political and economic integration among member states. It cites the free movement of people, goods and services as among its flagship projects for 2016. This...

A multitude of views have coloured the understanding of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) strategy. Some view OBOR through the lens of geopolitical competition and are wary of China’s rise. Yet, the OBOR vision has intrinsic value beyond fears...

The rise of non-Western emerging powers like Brazil, Russia, India and China is a reality that has shaped South Africa’s foreign policy under President Jacob Zuma. Foreign policy under Zuma has been characterised by his country’s growing closeness with these...

A decision by judges in the Supreme Court has finally put an end to the legal challenge of two British citizens claiming to be unfairly excluded from voting in the EU referendum. They were campaigning against the law , which disenfranchises people who have...