The Potential for Australia and China’s Free Trade Agreement
The past week has seen big breakthroughs in Asia Pacific economic diplomacy. At the APEC summit, Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe broke the diplomatic ice in the China–Japan relationship. The United States and China paved the way towards extending the...
International Forces Leave the Dollar Mixed
The overall theme today appears to be one of consolidation, encouraged by European data, which included a slightly higher than expected UK CPI and a considerably better German ZEW survey. Japan's Prime Minister Abe has not disappointed the market, delaying...
The Successes of the G20 Summit
Overall, the economies of Asia are a bull element in global recovery and long-term development. The advanced countries, although less so now the United States, remain a drag on the world economy with no sign that Europe is likely to...
2014 has been a Big Year for APEC
The APEC summit has only just ended, but like the return of hazy skies over Beijing, clouds of uncertainty surrounding the regional forum have again drifted overhead. This is familiar weather for APEC, a grouping that has faced questions about...
A Preview of this Week’s Events Among the Emerging Markets
There were few notable developments out of the G20 meeting that would directly impact EM markets. However, the escalating tensions with Russia made evident in the meeting have increased to the point that it could again lead to spillover effects....
Even More Economic News and Currency Reaction
The US dollar is mostly higher to start the week, with two exceptions. The first is the yen. The unexpected contraction in Q3 GDP triggered a stock market slide (Nikkei off 3%, giving back around 40% of this year’s gains)...
Let’s Review: Plus a Preview of this Week’s Events and Markets
The investment climate rests on three legs: the divergence that is characterized by the de-synchronized business cycle, the decline in commodity prices and a slowing of China. Data that underscores these factors appear to have stopped having much significance...
India Looking Beyond the end of QE in the U.S.
India was one of the hardest hit of the emerging markets after the US Federal Reserve first hinted it would cut back its quantitative easing program in May 2013. There were three reasons for this. First, global markets over-reacted. Second,...
India’s Medium-Term Outlook Encouraging, Long-Term Prospects Look Promising
The perception about India has changed dramatically in recent months. There was widespread disenchantment with the lackadaisical leadership of the previous government that lacked a coherent economic strategy and vision to reinvigorate growth. The perception about India has changed dramatically...
The Latest in the Emerging Markets
1) Hong Kong indicated it would lift the CNY20k limit for daily currency limit for Hong Kong residents 2) Moody's upgraded the outlook on Hungary’s Ba1 rating from negative to stable 3) South African politics are heating up 4) Moody's downgraded South Africa...
Defining the Asian ‘region’ a Challenge at APEC
With considerable pomp and circumstance – and at considerable expense – it fell to China to host the annual APEC summit this year. If it lives long in the memory at all, the meeting will probably be remembered for a...
India’s Restrictive Labor Laws Challenge Investors
Investors find labour laws in India restrictive. Although progress has been made since reforms began in 1991, the labour market is still subjected to around 250 labour rules at the central and state level. India, a democracy, has found it...
G20 Summit 2014 – A Preview and History Lesson
To understand this week’s G20 Summit being held in Brisbane, Australia, and measure its success, requires a sense of the history of economic crisis and change. Recurring crises have shaped global institutions across the interwar gold standard, the Bretton Woods...
The Challenge of the Intra-ASEAN Thai-Cambodia Conflict
The Thai–Cambodia dispute over the Preah Vihear temple (called Phra Viharn in Thailand) is one of the worst intra-ASEAN conflicts on record. At least 34 people were killed during intermittent hostilities over the three years. 11 November 2014 marks the...
China’s Growth Rate Slowed, But Not Dramatically
The global economy breathed a sigh of relief last month with the release of China’s third quarter growth numbers. The result of 7.3 percent was down from 7.5 percent in the previous quarter but came in a touch above consensus...