Jamaica Economic Forecast

For the Jamaican economy to survive, it must rely heavily on services, which account for over 60% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. The majority of revenue comes from tourism and transportation associated with foreign currency but bauxite/alumina and remittance inflows are also depended on. In fact, approximately 20% of the GDP is connected to remittance inflows. Unfortunately, of all Latin American countries, Jamaica has experienced the slowest economic growth and experts believe the country will continue to be faced with challenges for years to come.

For the Jamaican economy to survive, it must rely heavily on services, which account for over 60% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. The majority of revenue comes from tourism and transportation associated with foreign currency but bauxite/alumina and remittance inflows are also depended on. In fact, approximately 20% of the GDP is connected to remittance inflows. Unfortunately, of all Latin American countries, Jamaica has experienced the slowest economic growth and experts believe the country will continue to be faced with challenges for years to come. Economic problems in Jamaica are big such as a huge import and export deficit, high rate of underemployment and unemployment, and a public debt to GDP ratio of nearly 130% (fourth highest per capita). Another challenge is that with such a high rate of unemployment, crime in Jamaica is on the rise. All this is due to the government of Jamaica bailing out flailing sectors dating back to the late 1990s. With a lack of spending available for new facilities and infrastructure, and public debt servicing accounts not being handled, the country is in peril.

Jamaica GDP Forecast

The Jamaica GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollar) depends primarily on the services sector. The government realizes that things need to change to help the depressed economy but now with civil unrest and gang crime growing Jamaica needs to consider changes that will benefit long-term. Because of this, government officials are looking to boost the economy with the aid of foreign assistance but for IMF to agree to such a deal, major fiscal reforms would need to be introduced. For experts to determine what future GDP numbers will look like, they use a specific formula and look at past numbers. For instance, in 2008 the GDP was at $14.03 billion US dollars. Then over the next 24 months, a reduction of 15.15% was seen, putting 2009 at $11.903 billion and giving the country the ranking of 112 around the world. Now, experts predict that 2010 will end at $13.15 billion and 2015 at $16.637 billion, also in United States dollars.

Jamaica Unemployment Forecast

The current Jamaica population if slightly more than 2.7 million, which makes this country at number 133 for rankings. From 2008 to 2009, the population of this country was unchanged and when looking at 2010, experts believe the numbers will be close to the same. Then for the Jamaica unemployment rate, this is calculated as a percentage of the employed labor force, which includes the total number of people over age 14 willing to work. In 2008, the unemployment rate was at 11% but unfortunately, that number has increased to 14.5% and growing.

Jamaica Inflation Rate Forecast

To predict accurate numbers for the Jamaica inflation rate, experts do not use data for end-of-period but instead, averages for the year with an index of 2000=100. At year-end 2008, the rate was reported as 22.02% but then with a decline of 56.53%, the following year of 2009 ended at 9.57% so the country was ranked worldwide at number 28. Now, forecasters believe an increase of 55.69% will occur putting 2010 at an inflation rate of 14.90%. In looking at 2015, a more significant change is expected with reported numbers at 6.03%.

Jamaica Current Account Balance Forecast

For the Jamaica current account balance to be predicted accurately, primary classifications of income, current transfers, goods, and services are used although capital and financial items are eliminated from the transactions. Numbers for 2008 specific to this balance were at a negative $2.53 billion (US dollars). From that time to the end of 2009, the 45.22% decline put the year-end at a negative $1.388 billion making Jamaica number 133 for world ranking. Predictions being made for 2010 and 2015 are a negative $1.19 billion and negative 0.539 billion in US dollars, respectively.