Honduras Economic Forecast

For Central American countries, Honduras is the second poorest specific to per capita GDP. In this country, income distribution is completely off balance and sadly, unemployment is extremely high. The people of Honduras rely primarily on just a few exports, primarily coffee and bananas. Because of this, the exportation sector is at risk for commodity price shifts and natural disaster. In addition, much of the Honduras economy is diversified because of maquila investments and slower than expected export of non-traditional commodities.

For Central American countries, Honduras is the second poorest specific to per capita GDP. In this country, income distribution is completely off balance and sadly, unemployment is extremely high. The people of Honduras rely primarily on just a few exports, primarily coffee and bananas. Because of this, the exportation sector is at risk for commodity price shifts and natural disaster. In addition, much of the Honduras economy is diversified because of maquila investments and slower than expected export of non-traditional commodities. On a positive note, the economy of Honduras has seen some slow growth, which is heavily dependent on the economy of the United States. In fact, the US is the largest and most important of all import and export partners with Honduras but with exports declining and global credit markets being restricted, the country is facing some challenges. In 2006, the USA and Central America Free Trade Agreement called CAFTA was enacted and while tax collections has improved, the financial deficit for Honduras continues to expand because of current cost increases, as well as financial losses associated with the country’s energy and telephone companies.

Honduras GDP Forecast

To determine the future for the Honduras GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollar), expert forecasters use historical data and trends. One challenge is that this country experiences higher than normal crime and human rights is struggling. However, new safeguards are being put in place for environmental protection and labor rights. Keep in mind that while there are many positive aspects to CAFTA, many officials feel that unless strong labor and environmental provisions are created, this Act will only boost country reforms. The GDP for Honduras in 2008 was at $13.93 billion in US dollars and by 2009, $13.268 billion due to a slight 2.46% increase. Numbers reached at the end of 2009 put Honduras in the number 104 position for world rankings. By the end of 2010, it is expected that the GDP will be around $15.29 billion, up 7.15% from the prior year. Then in looking further ahead to 2015, a more significant change is being predicted that would push closing numbers to $23.79 billion in US dollars.

Honduras Unemployment Forecast

The current Honduras population is just under 7.9 million but because this country has a high mortality rate due to AIDS and AIDS complications, trying to forecast the population long-term is tough. Additionally, the estimated poverty rate is at 79% and infant mortality at 34 per every 1,000. Other challenges for the Honduras population include chronic malnutrition for children age five and under, low educational levels for adults, and a fast deterioration of forest and water resources. Unfortunately, the latest numbers reported on for the Honduras unemployment rate is just below 28%.

Honduras Inflation Rate Forecast

For experts to forecast the Honduras inflation rate, averages for the year being worked are used instead of data for end-of period. In addition, the average consumer prices index used to make these forecasts is 2000=100. Going back to 2008, the inflation rate for this country was at 11.40% but then with a 51.77 decrease, 2009 closed out at 5.5%. Numbers being forecasted for 2010’s inflation rate is 5.10%, a slight 7.27% reduction from 2009. Then for the year 2015, experts speculate the inflation rate will reach 6.5%.

Honduras Current Account Balance Forecastv

When creating forecasts for the Honduras current account balance, goods, services, current transfers, and income are used as classifications. The only items not used for all transactions are financial and capital and while financing is excluded, HIPC grants are included. The 2009 account balance was at a negative $0.457 billion in US dollars, a significant reduction of 74.55% from 2008 that had reported numbers of negative $1.80 billion. Forecasters now predict that for 2010, numbers will have a good change to negative $0.93 billion but for 2015, the change is dramatic, pushing numbers to negative $1.618 billion (United States dollars).