Future Trends: Top 10 Consumer Trends for 2010

 

3 December 2009. Its coming up to that time of year again, when we look back at what happened over the year and – more interestingly – forecast what is coming up for the next.[br]

 

 

3 December 2009. Its coming up to that time of year again, when we look back at what happened over the year and – more interestingly – forecast what is coming up for the next.[br]

Rather than looking at macroeconomic trends, however, we are going to pick up on the work of our friends Reinier and co at the appropriately name TrendWatching.com, who have just published their 10 Crucial Consumer Trends for 2010.

The first trend is particularly fascinating for the the EconomyWatch.com community I suspect: Business As Unusual. The TrendWatching team state that ruthless capitalism went out of fashion way before the crisis hit.

It may have gone out of fashion with the (wo)man in the street/ middle class/ Main Street, but it certainly hasn’t gone out of fashion with Wall Street. As we have said, Goldman execs are preparing for the coming revolution – by buying guns to defend themselves.

So while it is true that there is a general consumer movement towards greater transparency and accountability, less greed and more sustainable practices, which will probably be given a boost by the upcoming Copenhagen Climate talks, there are some powerful counter trends that need to factored in as well:

1. Since China is now the new capital of Bling, with Russia not far behind it, there are still billions of people interested first in acquiring wealth and then in flaunting it. Showing restraint will have to wait.

2. Within the developed world, there are still plenty of people who want to acquire more wealth, in Wall Street and elsewhere. They will be under increasing social pressure to rein in their extravagent shows of wealth, and indeed to give up some of that wealth. A proposition they will fight tooth-and-nail. [br]

The TrendWatching team propose a number of trends that are related to uber-trend.

They believe that we will see a movement towards Embedded Generousity, in which, for example, for each one item you buy, a similar item is donated to a needy person somewhere in the world. This trend has not been lost on the Goldmanites, who have joined forces with Warren Buffett to donate $500 million to small American businesses.

Never mind that they can’t quite shake their killer instincts – this will, after all, introduce them to thousands of potential new clients to milk, sorry, service – or that they earn this much in profits in a couple of days. They have caught the trend – and so should you!

The other is Eco-Easy, the idea that, since consumers by-and-large have agreed that we need to change from a disposable consumerist culture to a sustainable eco-friendly one, that products and services should arise now that make it easy to be eco – or indeed that there will be no alternative.

TrendWatching believe that this might take the form of government intervention, which may be painful, but they hope it will be more entrepreneurial in nature (no pun intended), involving green buildings, bottled water and non degradable bag free towns, carbon taxes, limits on unsustainably fished produce, and so on.

There is, however, a counter trend that we at EconomyWatch believe will come to battle Eco-Easy, Eco-Uneasy.

The fact is that increasing numbers of people are questioning what has become orthodoxy over the environmental impact of our activities, and solutions to environmental problems. Some consumer studies have shown that less Americans believe in global warming now than did a few years ago; Super Freakonomics questioned the whole global warming argument and solutions, and now there is Climategate, that the Telegraph believes is the final nail in the coffin of global warming.

Climategate is a leak of emails and computer codes that seem to suggest some of the data used to support the theory massaged to show a higher levels of warming than have actually been recorded.

The opposition party in Australia have just elected a leader who stands opposed to the creation of an Emmissions Trading Scheme – a carbon offset mechanism. The battle lines are being drawn and 2010 will be a key year to see which way the debate goes.

Another trend that we were particularly interested in is Urbany. Some time last year – or possibly in 2009/ 2010 depending on who conducts the study – more than half the world’s population will live in cities. In 1910, a mere hundred years ago, that figure was only 5%.

Furthermore, that trend is increasing. In the last two decades, 3 million people a week have been moving to cities! By 2050, 70% of the world will live in cities, and of those, 3.3 billion will live in Asian cities.

How do we change when we all live in cities? Cities can paradoxically make it easier to build Eco-Easy services, which may well be the norm if the sustainability crowd wins the coming ideological battle, as it seems poised to do. Cities will also become a key part of our identity, maybe surpassing the importance of the country as the main unit of affiliation. The Urban Pride subtrend speaks to this.

You can read more about the vast urban migration in the UN Habitat Global Report on Human Settlements.

Here are all 10 Trends in the briefing:

1. Business as Unusual

2. Urbany

3. Real Time Reviews – all products and services will be reviewed en masse, live, 24/7

4. (F)luxury – or fragmented luxury … luxury will be whatever you want it to be

5. Mass Mingling – forget nerds in clossets, online social networks are spawning mass real world meet ups

6. Eco-Easy

7. Tracking and Alerting – what is described as the new INFOLUST fullfillment, be alerted when anything happens

8. Embedded Generousity

9. Profile Myning – a new generation of services to use, manage, protect or pass on online profiles

10. Maturialism – more ‘anything goes’, risque and daring marketing than ever.

Check out the list at TrendWatching.

Keith Timimi

EconomyWatch.com