The Papuan Challenge to Indonesian President Widodo’s Government
Indonesia’s Papua, covering its two easternmost provinces, simmers with the highest levels of deadly violence — inter-ethnic, electoral, land-related and domestic — in the country. Home to a Melanesian and largely Christian indigenous population, it became part of Indonesia in...
Electing Hong Kong’s Next CEO: It’s Complicated
The Hong Kong government’s election reform proposal will theoretically allow for greater flexibility and competition for the 2017 race for Chief Executive. Pan-democratic lawmakers are vowing to veto the proposal, threatening the result and ultimately the 2017 ‘one person one...
What will become of the ‘special relationship’ between the U.S. and U.K. Following the Election?
After last week’s elections, British politics is at a unique turning point and perhaps so is US policy, where in a tumultuous world; Great Britain has heretofore been a steadfast US ally. The final vote on Thursday, May 7, confounded...
UK Election Fallout Holds Different Political Ideologies and Assessments of EU Membership
Just a few days before the election, I predicted that Labour would win 270 seats and the Conservatives 275, and Labour would form a minority government. I begin with this confession as a warning that the wise should read what...
Advancing the Socialist Rule of Law in China
Xi Jinping has recently published a book of maxims and instructions concerning ‘the comprehensive advancement of Socialist rule of law’. This is another strong political signal that the top leadership has committed itself to a process of legal reform. While...
Currency Implications from the US Jobs Report, Euro-bond sell-off and the UK Tory Victory
Three developments drove the dollar last week. The Eurozone bond market sell-off exhausted itself with the help of softer than expected German industrial orders and an outright decline in industrial output. The US jobs data bolstered arguments that what now...
U.K. Data Shows Pre-election Jitters While Europe Heads in Two Directions
There are four developments today that impact global investors. The first is that the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25 bp rate cut but signaled in its statement that is has returned to a wait and see mode. The...
Grading Japanese PM Abe’s U.S. Visit
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s US visit was, overall, a success. His meeting with President Obama and his Congressional speech created the impression of a leader who is capable of delivering. During his visit to the US two years ago, Abe...
Vietnam’s Slow, Uneven, March Toward Democracy
Since the mid-1990s, public criticism of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) government has expanded to involve thousands of citizens across the country. From this ferment of criticism numerous individuals, networks and organisations have emerged that oppose the present regime...
China’s Ethnic Frontier Protests are Still High Risk
For centuries, the Chinese state has governed its distant ethnic frontiers with both carrot and stick. In the past, emperors proffered ‘imperial grace’ (Ä“n) for those ‘barbarians’ willing to submit (at least nominally) to Chinese dominion, while reserving the right...
Is Greece’s Euroscepticsm Really Working, and Can it Work for Others?
The last few years have been remarkable for Greece’s relationship with the EU. The bail-out agreements between the country and the EU-IMF, the interference of the latter two in domestic affairs and the imposition of austerity have caused a sharp...
UK Election: Without Productivity Gains, Growth is Doomed to be Below Potential
The economy is taking centre stage in the UK election, with the main parties spending most of their time arguing over the speed and extent of cuts – and which party would be more “fiscally responsible”. But the fundamental (and...
The Battle Drawn Along Myanmar’s Ethnic Lines
In the official count, the country tallies up 135 different ‘national races’. The majority Bamar people, who drive national expectations of language, culture and politics, make up around 60 percent of the population. The minority groups, most with their own...
China’s Underlying Strategy in Tibet Appears to be Working
The Chinese authorities last met with representatives of the Tibetan exile leadership five years ago. Since then, there has been no progress towards a resolution of the China–Tibetan dispute. Meanwhile, protests against Chinese rule have continued, with over a hundred...
The UK’s Cameron Attacks Bureaucracy, and Irony Ensues
Five years ago, a fresh-faced leader of the opposition stood on the stage at a TED conference in London speaking to a gathering of technologists and entrepreneurs. His promise was to deliver the next age of government. David Cameron’s talk did...