Economics

Three developments drove the dollar last week.  The Eurozone bond market sell-off exhausted itself with the help of softer than expected German industrial orders and an outright decline in industrial output. The US jobs data bolstered arguments that what now...

The consensus for a 226k increase in April non-farm payrolls got as close as reasonably possible to the actual 223k increase.  The nearly 40k downward revision to the March report (85k down from 126k of the initial estimate) tempered the...

For many Americans, the value of the dollar in trade terms is a point of pride. Older generations remember a time when they could buy things for a fraction of what they cost today. Many view a strong dollar as...

A decisive victory by the Conservative Party in Great Britain may portend greater cost cutting to social services and lower corporate taxes for the UK. While the Conservatives gained a majority with over 327 seats, the Liberal Democrats suffered a...

The polls proved wide of the mark. While we had detected a break toward the Tories over the past week, the results were stunning. The Tories appear to have won half the 650 seats.  Most of the contested seats swung...

Greta Gabaglio / Shutterstock.com Greta Gabaglio / Shutterstock.com Expo 2015 opened in Milan on May 1 – the latest of the five-yearly world’s fairs where the nations of the world build pavilions to showcase national wealth, culture and enterprise. Expo...

The dramatic sell-off in European bonds continues apace today.  In part, sparked by the easing of deflation pressure, there is a taper tantrum of sorts playing out.  The 10-year German bund yield is up 18 bp to 76 bp.  Recall...

The state of living standards in the UK has been a hotly contested issue in the build-up to the country’s general election. The coalition government has argued that living standards have increased since it came to power in 2010. The...

To understand the impetus for launching the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), look no further than China’s concern that the governance structure of existing international financial institutions was evolving too slowly. To understand the impetus for launching the Asian Infrastructure...

Since the US economic recovery began, following the "Great Recession" of 2008, things have been slow but steady. That is, they were until the first quarter of 2015. A number of growth indicators have been off for some time, but...

After losing 50% of its value in 2014, oil prices have surged in 2015, rising from $40 to over $60 a barrel in just three months. The price of oil rose to over $60 a barrel in the United States...

On April 1, in an announcement that just a year or two ago might have been seen as an April Fools’ prank, McDonald’s said that by July 1 it would raise wages to at least one dollar above the local...

Is the time ripe for a new push for normalised trade between India and Pakistan? The foreign secretaries of both nations recently met in Islamabad. The two countries can expect formal talks to resume after a hiatus of six months....

With the number of founding members reaching 57, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), is surely a diplomatic success for China. This is not the first bank initiated by the country. The development bank for Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) groups China,...

There are four developments today that impact global investors. The first is that the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a 25 bp rate cut but signaled in its statement that is has returned to a wait and see mode.  The...