Economics

The Hong Kong government’s election reform proposal will theoretically allow for greater flexibility and competition for the 2017 race for Chief Executive. Pan-democratic lawmakers are vowing to veto the proposal, threatening the result and ultimately the 2017 ‘one person one...

Reports exaggerated the significance of the May 12 procedural vote in the US Senate.  Some called it a rebuke of Obama.  Others said it was a stunning blow or a sharp defeat. It was none of these things. After looking...

Anyone who has looked at the cost for rent in New York, San Francisco, and similar cities knows just how expensive it can be to live in these towns. But, could these high rents actually be hurting the economy? Anyone...

Retail sales failed to rise in April, causing the Federal Reserve to lower its GDP forecast as Americans are slow to spend and stimulate the consumer-driven economy. Retail sales failed to rise in April, causing the Federal Reserve to lower...

The combination of the disappointing US retail sales and small inventory build has encouraged a new bout of dollar selling.  The world's biggest economy may have contracted close to 1% in Q1 and Q2 is off to a weak start. ...

China and India are ready for breakthrough diplomacy that has the potential to reorder the face of Asia, while supporting global growth prospects. From May 14th to 16th, India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, will make a three-day trip to China...

Equities and bond markets are mostly trading higher today.  The dollar changed little against the euro and yen, but it is softer against the dollar-bloc.  Sterling extended is a post-election rally with the help of a gain in average weekly...

France GDP grows 0.6% in first quarter of 2015, above estimates of 0.4%.  Lower oil prices and a weaker euro helped exports, driving a higher growth rate than the European country has seen for two years. Some analysts believe this...

The main legislative hurdle to granting Obama Trade Promotion Authority (fast track) was supposed to be in the House of Representatives. This makes the defeat on a procedural vote in the Senate even more surprising. Vocal opposition came from the...

After decades of international isolation, Iran is eager to enter its post-sanction era, while Washington is divided about Iran’s future and Brussels remains apprehensive. Recently, Peter Wittig, German Ambassador to the US, said that alternatives to a deal to curb...

After last week’s elections, British politics is at a unique turning point and perhaps so is US policy, where in a tumultuous world; Great Britain has heretofore been a steadfast US ally.  The final vote on Thursday, May 7, confounded...

Just a few days before the election, I predicted that Labour would win 270 seats and the Conservatives 275, and Labour would form a minority government. I begin with this confession as a warning that the wise should read what...

Xi Jinping has recently published a book of maxims and instructions concerning ‘the comprehensive advancement of Socialist rule of law’. This is another strong political signal that the top leadership has committed itself to a process of legal reform. While...

The US dollar has begun the new week on firm footing, but the tone is more consolidative than trending.  The dollar-bloc currencies, led by the New Zealand dollar, are particular softer despite China's rate cut, which sometimes has been supportive...

1.  After the US economy appears to have contracted (-0.5%/-0.8%) in the first quarter, how is the economy doing here in Q2 which is half over this week? Last week we learned that after a simply dismal March labor report,...