Economic Conditions

Recent trends, which include firmer equities and oil, weaker euro and bonds, and stronger dollar-bloc currencies, are reversing today, a turn-around Tuesday of sorts. MSCI's Emerging Market equity index is snapping a seven-day advancing streak, giving back yesterday's gains and...

The US dollar is retracing part of its pre-weekend losses against the European currencies and dollar-bloc today while falling equity prices are underpinning the yen.  Brent is nearing $40 a barrel, and WTI is pushing through $36.  Iron ore prices...

Sometimes the news stream drives prices, and sometimes the price action drives the narratives.  We argued that the sharp decline in equities at the start of the year was fanned the doom and gloom in the media and market commentary. ...

The US dollar is mixed ahead of the US employment data.  The Antipodeans and Scandis are doing best while sterling and the Canadian dollar are under-performing. The US dollar is mixed ahead of the US employment data.  The Antipodeans and...

The global capital markets are quiet today, as investors await fresh impetus, which could come in the form of tomorrow's US national employment figures.  There is also next week's ECB meeting that looms large for investors.  The global capital markets...

About 30 years ago, I was able to predict the U.S. would see a major generational spending peak in 2007, all from my demographic indicator, the Generational Spending Wave.  On a 46-year lag from the time they were born, that’s...

Deflation is portrayed as the great economic scourge.  It exacerbates debt-servicing costs and encourages consumers to defer purchases.  Central banks in Japan and Europe have responded with aggressive, unorthodox measures, often combining asset purchase programs with negative interest rates.  Deflation...

The angst that characterized the first several weeks of the year continues to dissipate.  Major equity markets are extending their two-week recovery into a third week. Immediate concerns about the US falling into a recession have eased. The angst that...

Many economists argue that the key challenge is that of insufficient aggregate demand.  That is why world growth is slow.  Hobbled with debt, households have pulled back.  Business investment is weak.  Household and business savings have offset government dissavings.  The...

It could have been a disaster.  US faltered yesterday, with the S&P 500 again struggling in the 1945-1950 area, and China's PMIs were weaker than expected.  However, after initial weakness Asian shares turned higher.  The nearly 0.9% rise allowed the...

It seemed that it was only after Asian equity markets fell did reports begin suggesting disappointment with the G20 meeting.  The narrative followed the price action rather than the other way around.  Before that, at least, one newswire claimed China...

The year has begun on a tumultuous note.  The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 all gapped lower the first day of the year. However, heightened anxiety has calmed as the fire appears to have burnt itself out, and equities have...

The US S&P 500 closed above 1950 for the first time since January 6.  Global equity markets are broadly higher in response.  At the same time, ahead of the G20 meeting, the world's second and third-largest economies have signaled additional...

A confluence of factors is raising anxiety levels among investors, expressed in heightened volatility. The S&P 500 was turned back yesterday from the key 1945 level, and global equities are falling today.   The over-production of oil is set to continue. ...

The US dollar and yen remain firm.  The ramifications of Brexit continue to weigh on sterling and the euro.  After nearing $1.4050 yesterday, sterling could not move much above $1.4150 before sellers re-emerged.  The euro, which came close to $1.10...