DRC President Considers Staying Beyond Official Mandate

Senior official, Henri Mova Sakani, stated that a constitutional referendum is up for consideration allowing President Joseph Kabila to run for a third term in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The referendum is part of a larger trend in Africa, as some leaders change the constitutions of their homelands to remain in power, but he would face stronger opposition from political opponents. Kabila has ruled since 2001, but is set to exit this year as the presidential election begins in November.

Senior official, Henri Mova Sakani, stated that a constitutional referendum is up for consideration allowing President Joseph Kabila to run for a third term in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The referendum is part of a larger trend in Africa, as some leaders change the constitutions of their homelands to remain in power, but he would face stronger opposition from political opponents. Kabila has ruled since 2001, but is set to exit this year as the presidential election begins in November.

It should come as no surprise that Kabila may extend his stay in office when considering the tendency for power-grabbing in the region, contributing to large-scale instability. The DRC could follow the same fate as Burundi, a country that allowed President Pierre Nkurunziza to stand for a third term, but numerous killings and political assassinations have followed since his third win in July.

DRC is on better footing than Burundi, but both nations have been plagued by civil and ethnic strife, which could spiral out of control in DRC if he intends to hold onto power longer. DRC has been racked by years of civil war and political turbulence as leadership contends with incursions throughout the country and geopolitical tensions with neighboring Rwanda and Uganda.

Economic Standing

The undercurrent of instability is already in the making as the economy withers. Copper production dropped 20 percent in Q1 of 2016, with gold and cobalt production following similar declines, notes Reuters. DRC derives 98 percent of its exports from the commodities sector.

If Kabila chooses to run again, he has to explain to voters why his policies have failed to jumpstart growth and upgrade living standards. His stay would draw wrath from world powers such as the U.S., and Washington is considering sanctions against DRC in reaction to the president’s third-term aspirations.

Some EU member states do not support the sanctions route, rendering sanctions meaningless if there is not enough EU support among individual states.

DRC’s Future

Critics suspect that the government would delay presidential voting outright, which would give Kabila’s administration enough time propose a constitutional referendum. A third-term bid would further isolate DRC from the world community, perpetuating economic stagnation in the process.

The president enjoys some support throughout the nation, and a large segment of voters would elect him again. The problem is that opponents in the world community grow weary of power grabs in the region, which could force Kabila to reconsider his decision if there is enough domestic and international pressure.