China’s Labor Market Adaptation to Slower Growth

As long as the labor market remains resilient and structural reforms deepen, the living standards of individual Chinese will continue to rise fast.

China’s central bank cut the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates by 25 basis points from Sunday, which has been widely interpreted as an effort to prop up economic growth, which has been slowing. 

As long as the labor market remains resilient and structural reforms deepen, the living standards of individual Chinese will continue to rise fast.

China’s central bank cut the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates by 25 basis points from Sunday, which has been widely interpreted as an effort to prop up economic growth, which has been slowing. 

The slowing growth in China reflects the demise of the rapid industrialization period, as well as China’s demographic transition. The share of working-age people in the total population has been declining since 2010. Internationally, growth deceleration reflects slower demand in stagnant Europe and Japan, and lingering recovery in the US. 

Policymakers were able to keep growth above 7 percent last year, despite the weak investment in real estate and manufacturing, thanks to the government’s “mini-stimulus” and the central bank’s liquidity. 

And, despite much pessimistic speculation at home and even more abroad, the government’s annual target of 10 million new jobs was reached by October, well before the year-end. 

But what about 2015?

In China, reliable and comprehensive labor market data is still scarce. The official registered unemployment rate has barely moved in the course of the past decade. Although it includes the unemployed that voluntarily register with authorities, it excludes critical segments – rural population, migrant workers and new graduates.

The surveyed unemployment rate, which focuses on labor-age population in large and medium-size cities, provides an alternative picture of the employment trends. It was 5 to 6 percent before the global crisis in 2008 and stabilized at 5 percent, after the government’s huge stimulus package. Currently, it is estimated at 5.1 percent. 

Obviously, the government’s stimulus policies and the central bank’s liquidity injections have supported the labor market. Additional easing is to be expected as long as import growth remains sluggish and headline inflation is at a five-year low.

But the labor market is also in a transition, due to the aging population and declining labor force. In the surveyed cities, the demand for labor has exceeded the supply of labor since late 2012. Last year, the demand for labor in cities decreased by 2.2 percent, but the supply of labor plunged by 4.4 percent; twice as much. 

China is not suffering from the kind of deflation that is impacting the economies of Japan and some European countries. It continues to have substantial growth potential for a decade or two. In the near-term, however, the big picture remains foggy due to cyclical factors and structural transition.

As so many times before, the Chinese New Year tends to blur the January and February data, which distorts long-term trends. What is more interesting is the relationship between consumer inflation and manufacturing data. Until the early 2010s, the two went hand in hand. Since then, they have diverged. 

After three decades of growth fueled by investment and net exports, Chinese producers suffer from overcapacity; hence, the negative manufacturing data. In contrast, Chinese consumption demand and consumer confidence remain solid, and fueled by strong wage growth in the non-manufacturing sectors. 

Until recently, the focus of Chinese growth was on GDP. The goal was to create a strong economy. Even today, China could grow faster but the government chooses not to. Now the emphasis is not on growth for growth’s sake, but on GDP per capita. The objective is to achieve better living standards for more Chinese people.

A single-minded obsession with the slowing of growth in China is misguided. As long as the labor market remains resilient and structural reforms deepen, the living standards of individual Chinese will continue to rise robustly. And that’s what really matters.

The impact of China’s ‘new normal’ on jobs is republished with permission from The Difference Group