Belarus President Torn Between the EU and Russia

President Alexander Lukashenko said this week that he does not wish to choose between Russia and the European Union, according to Reuters. Stronger EU ties would benefit the economy, but Belarusians rely on Russian business to sustain their economy. The EU issued sanctions on Belarus in 2010 in response to harsh crackdowns on political dissidents, but the sanctions were subsequently lifted in February 2016.

President Alexander Lukashenko said this week that he does not wish to choose between Russia and the European Union, according to Reuters. Stronger EU ties would benefit the economy, but Belarusians rely on Russian business to sustain their economy. The EU issued sanctions on Belarus in 2010 in response to harsh crackdowns on political dissidents, but the sanctions were subsequently lifted in February 2016.

Belarus finds itself caught between two geopolitical rivals, but Lukashenko will not be able to remain on the fence for too long. The capital of Minsk served as a peace haven for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, Belarusians freed political prisoners and conducted honest presidential elections in October to please Brussels.

The Eastern European nation supported the new government of Ukraine, but is still on good terms with Russia. The Belarusian economy suffers because of the Russian recession and world market instability. The economy contracted 4.0-percent in 2015, and the currency lost nearly half of its value. Authorities have requested a $3-billion loan package with the International Monetary Fund as a safeguard.

Belarus struggles with minimal natural resources, but has a robust manufacturing sector dating back to Soviet rule. The nation’s manufacturing base thrived after Soviet collapse, but suffered immensely during the 2008 world decline.

Belarus has strengthened ties with the EU, Georgia and Pakistan to enhance growth, and while policymakers achieved significant progress on certain fronts, Minsk remains stunted in several key ways, most notably the country’s long-running despotism.

Lukashenko has been in power for five terms and has ruled since 1994. Brussels was generous in lifting the sanctions, but certain restrictions remain in place to bestow further punishment for the disappearance of political opponents.

Relations between the EU and Belarus are improving, but human rights and authoritarianism are issues that prevent both sides from reaching a full consensus, while hurting the Belarusians economically. Moreover, the government’s strict governance places a heavy burden on the economy and business community.

For instance, policymakers levied new rules requiring that small businesses attain official certification for all products, a costly process that many owners can ill afford in a struggling economy, notes the Associated Press.

Aside from prolonged red tape, certification fees are higher in Belarus than in the European Union, and critics charge that the measure is a ploy to plug holes in the budget. Hundreds of protests have marched through the capital in recent months to voice opposition against the mandate.

Belarus is at a crossroads in terms of its future, and while pivoting to the West seems like a viable solution as the Russian economy suffers, the country must remain on friendly terms with both powers in the foreseeable future.