Asia Pacific Economic Forecast
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Asia-Pacific is the fastest growing economic region in the world. Backed by the rapid growth of emerging economies within the region such as China and India, Asia-Pacific is expected to remain as the world’s main economic growth centre, with its growth rate being nearly one and a half times more than that of any other region of the world.
Asia-Pacific is the fastest growing economic region in the world. Backed by the rapid growth of emerging economies within the region such as China and India, Asia-Pacific is expected to remain as the world’s main economic growth centre, with its growth rate being nearly one and a half times more than that of any other region of the world.
In 2010, the average GDP growth rate (constant prices, national currency) for Asia-Pacific was 5.547 percent. For the same year, the weighted average GDP growth rate (constant prices, national currency) was 7.101 percent. The 2010 growth rates were particularly high, as most economies were recovering from a fairly low base that was formed as a direct result of the 2008 global financial crisis. Although the 2011 GDP growth forecast is expected to be lower than the previous year, it will still be higher than that of the world’s average.
In 2011, Asia-Pacific’s average and weighted average GDP growth rate (constant prices, national currency) are expected to be 4.779 percent and 5.468 percent respectively. The highest GDP growth rate (constant prices, national currency) for the year will come from Mongolia (9.754 percent), followed by China (9.593 percent) and India (8.242 percent).
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Asia-Pacific’s GDP Forecast
The Asia-Pacific region was the largest economic region in the world in 2010 according to both GDP (current prices, US dollars) and GDP (PPP). The combined GDP (current prices, US dollars) for Asia-Pacific was US$18.354 trillion – excluding unavailable data from American Samoa, Cook Islands, French Polynesia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, North Korea, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Tokelau, and Wallis and Futuna. In the same year, Asia-Pacific’s combined GDP (PPP) was US$25.725 trillion.
Asia-Pacific’s combined GDP (PPP) is expected to grow faster year on year from 2011 to 2016. By the end of 2011, Asia-Pacific’s GDP (PPP) is expected to be 7.8 percent higher compared to 2010 – at US$27.732 trillion. Between 2012 and 2016, Asia-Pacific’s GDP (PPP) will increase annually by 8.229 percent to 8.977 percent. In 2016, Asia-Pacific’s GDP (PPP) will hit US$41.784 trillion.
Similarly, Asia-Pacific’s average GDP (PPP) per capita will experience rising annual growth in the next few years. In 2010, Asia-Pacific’s average GDP (PPP) per capita was $15,302.39 with Singapore leading the way at US$56521.73 and Myanmar proping up the rear at US$1249.82. From 2011 to 2016, Asia-Pacific’s GDP (PPP) per capita will see annual increases of between 3.94 percent and 4.858 percent. By the end of 2016, the average GDP (PPP) per capita for Asia Pacific will reach US$19873.45. Singapore, Hong Kong, and Brunei Darussalam will have the highest GDP (PPP) per capita in Asia-Pacific, with Myanmar, Cambodia and Papua New Guinea at the bottom of the pile.
Asia-Pacific’s Unemployment Forecast
More than half of the world’s total population reside in Asia-Pacific, with the majority whom living in the top two most populous nations in the world – China and India. In 2010, the total population in Asia Pacific was more than 3.57 billion.
Unemployment figures were unavailable for a number of Asia-Pacific nations – America Samoa, Cambodia, Cook Islands, French Polynesia, India, Kiribati, Laos, Macau, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, North Korea, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor Leste, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, and Wallis Futuna. However, with the exception of Macau, most of these nations are expected to have relatively high unemployment rates.
Between Australia, Brunei Darussalam, China, Fiji, Guam, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Vietnam, the average unemployment rate for these nations in 2010 was 4.994 percent. Thailand had the lowest unemployment rate in Asia-Pacific at 1.04 percent while Guam’s unemployment rate of 10.6 percent was the highest among the recorded data.
Although unemployment rates are expected to see some fluctuations within the individual countries, the overall average unemployment rate among the recorded Asia-Pacific nations is expected to gradually decrease from 2011 to 2016. By 2016, the average unemployment rate will drop to 4.512 percent. New Zealand will have the best improvement, falling from 6.525 percent unemployment in 2010 to 4.483 percent in 2016 – a 2.042 percentage point decrease. On the other hand, Myanmar, Pakistan, and Vietnam are unlikely to see any change in unemployment during the same period.
Asia-Pacific’s Inflation & Current Account Balance Forecast
The average inflation rate (average consumer price change) for Asia-Pacific in 2010 was 3.972 percent – excluding unavailable data from the Cook Islands, French Polynesia, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, North Korea, Northern Mariana Islands, Palau, Tokelau, and Wallis and Futuna. In 2010, Samoa (-0.2 percent), Japan (-0.698 percent), Kiribati (-1.379 percent), and Tuvalu (-1.852 percent) all experienced deflation while India (13.187 percent), Pakistan (11. 730 percent) and Mongolia (10.165 percent) had the highest inflation rates (average consumer price change) in Asia-Pacific.
No recorded country in Asia-Pacific is expected to experience deflation by 2011. Apart from Fiji and India, the other countries in Asia-Pacific are all expected to see a rise in inflation (average consumer price change) in 2011 from the previous year. The most likely reason for this is because inflation rates were fairly low in 2010 due to the recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis. As such, the average inflation rate (average consumer price change) in Asia-Pacific for 2011 was 5.488 percent.
However inflation rates (average consumer price change) are expected to fall annually within the region from 2012 to 2016. By 2016, the average inflation rate (average consumer price change) in the region is expected to be at 3.446 percent. In 2016, Japan will have the lowest inflation rate (average consumer price change) in Asia-Pacific – 0.985 percent – while Myanmar will have the highest – 8.001 percent. The greatest decrease in inflation will be seen by India – falling from 13.187 percent in 2010 to 4.033 percent by 2016. Similarly, Samoa will see the highest increase in inflation from -0.2 percent in 2010 to 4.2 percent by 2016.
Asia-Pacific is home to the top two current account balance surplus holders in the world – China and Japan. In 2010, China’s current account balance was a surplus of US$306.2 billion while Japan’s current account balance surplus was US$194.754 billion. On the other hand, Asia-Pacific also holds two of the top fifteen current account balance deficit holders – India and Australia. In 2010, India’s current account balance was a negative US$48.977 billion with Australia’s being a negative US$31.724 billion. By 2016, China’s current account balance is expected to increase even further to US$873.936 billion. However, Japan’s current account balance is expected to drop to US$131.471 billion. India’s current account balance deficit will decline slightly to –US$44.617 billion, but Australia’s current account balance deficit is likely to more than double to –US$105.77 billion.
