OECD Leading Indicators Show World Economy at Inflection Point
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Paris, France, 30 May 2009. OECD Data shows that we are far from out of the words, but we are reaching a turning point, supporting the theory that the world recession will end towards the end of 2009, but that the recovery will be tentative.[br]
Paris, France, 30 May 2009. OECD Data shows that we are far from out of the words, but we are reaching a turning point, supporting the theory that the world recession will end towards the end of 2009, but that the recovery will be tentative.[br]
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) publishes a set of Composite Leading Indicators or CLIs designed to forecast the economic performance
The data shows signs of a turning point. France and Italy have turned positive for the last three months, while UK and Canada have been positive for the last two.[br]
It is not all rosy in the garden however. Contractions in the US, Germany, China, India, Brazil and Russia are still getting worse. The extent of the negative indicators in these countries is the worse that has been recording in the history of the OECD CLI.
Economists and central bankers alike believe that the indicators will start to turn up for all countries in the next three to six months. Some call for positive GDP growth even in the US as early as Q3 2009.
However any growth will be anemic. Exports continue to decline, unemployment is rising and some estimates put the total value of bad debt in the US alone at $4 trillion, of which only $1 trillion has been written off so far
Hosni Afleck, EconomyWatch.com
