IDC Forecasts Record Apple Shipments in 2025 Driven by iPhone 17 Success

A new report from the International Data Corporation (IDC) projects that Apple will achieve a record-breaking year for iPhone shipments in 2025, surpassing all previous records. This significant upward revision to the forecast is largely attributed to the “phenomenal success” of the latest iPhone 17 series.

Apple is forecast to ship approximately 247.4 million iPhones by the end of 2025, marking a 6.1% year-over-year (YoY) growth and breaking the previous shipment record set in 2021 when the company released its iPhone 13.

This calendar year is also expected to be a record period for Apple in terms of value, with revenue forecast to exceed $261 billion, a 7.2% YoY growth. The strong performance by Apple is the primary factor driving the overall worldwide smartphone market to an expected 1.5% YoY growth to 1.25 billion units in 2025, an increase from IDC’s prior forecast of 1% growth.

IDC Forecasts Record Apple Shipments in 2025

A major highlight of the forecast is Apple’s dramatic turnaround in the crucial Chinese market. IDC revised its forecast for the entire Chinese smartphone market from a previously projected 1% decline for the year into a positive 3% growth, thanks to Apple’s strength.

Nabila Popal, senior research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, noted that the success story is “replicated across all regions, including the US and Western Europe that had previously slowed down.”

Despite the record-setting year for Apple in 2025, IDC’s outlook for 2026 is more cautious, with a forecast for worldwide smartphone shipments to decline by 0.9%. An ongoing global memory component shortage is expected to constrain supply and raise prices, impacting low-to-mid-range Android devices the most.

Notably, Apple’s reported strategic shift of its next base iPhone model from a fall 2026 launch to early 2027 is forecast to pull down iOS shipments by 4.2% next year. Apple hasn’t officially said anything about the timing of the next iPhone, but a Bloomberg report said the company could delay the iPhone 18 launch to 2027.

Counterpoint Also Expects a Strong Year for Apple

IDC’s report comes a few days after Counterpoint Research predicted that Apple would surpass Samsung Electronics as the world’s leading smartphone manufacturer by annual shipment volume in 2025. This monumental shift, which would see Apple reclaim the top spot it last held in 2011, is primarily fueled by the strong global reception of the iPhone 17 series and a massive, overdue consumer upgrade cycle.

Counterpoint projected iPhone shipments to grow by 10% YoY in 2025, significantly outpacing the 4.6% growth forecast for Samsung’s Galaxy devices. Both companies are, however, expected to grow faster than the 3.3% global smartphone market shipment growth that Counterpoint is predicting for 2025. Counterpoint estimates that Apple will capture 19.4% smartphone market share this year, ahead of Samsung’s 18.7%.

Senior Counterpoint analyst Yang Wang said, “Beyond the highly positive market reception for the iPhone 17 series, the key driver behind the upgraded shipment outlook lies in the replacement cycle reaching its inflection point. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are now entering their upgrade phase.”

He added, “Furthermore, 358 million second-hand iPhones were sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. These users are also likely to upgrade to a new iPhone in the coming years. These factors will form a sizable demand base, which is expected to sustain iPhone shipment growth over the coming quarters.”

Counterpoint Expects Apple to Extend Its Lead Over Samsung

Counterpoint forecasts that Apple will hold the position of the leading smartphone company until 2029 and will widen the gap with Samsung. The research firm projects that a strong product pipeline, including the rumored launch of a more budget-friendly iPhone 17e model and the anticipated debut of Apple’s first foldable iPhone in the coming years, would help drive volumes for Apple, whose shipments were tepid over the last couple of years.

While Samsung remains a powerhouse with a broad product portfolio spanning all price points, Apple’s focus on the high-end market, coupled with its strong brand loyalty and favorable market dynamics, has created the perfect storm to disrupt Samsung’s decade-long dominance in global smartphone shipments.

iPhone 17 Sales Have Been Strong

iPhone revenue for Q4 2025 reached $49.03 billion, marking a 6% YoY increase and setting a September-quarter record. While the quarter only included a few weeks of sales for the new models, early demand for the iPhone 17 series, particularly the premium Pro/Pro Max models, was quite strong. Initial sales in key markets like the US and China were reportedly tracking 14% above the prior year’s launch, underscoring the success of the new design, improved cameras, and the new A19 Pro chip.

Chinese consumers have responded warmly to the enhanced features and superior value of the standard iPhone 17. The new model offers significant upgrades, including an improved chip, better display, more base storage, and an upgraded selfie camera, all for the same price as the previous base model. This compelling value proposition has been a major draw for value-conscious consumers.

Local discounts, coupons, and government-backed consumer goods trade-in programs have amplified the appeal of the iPhone, helping Apple navigate intense competition from domestic rivals like Huawei and Xiaomi.

Tim Cook Visited China in October

Notably, US-China tensions are among the factors that dampened Apple’s sales in the world’s second-biggest economy. However, Apple has often displayed a strong commitment to China, and its CEO Tim Cook visited China in October, where he not only engaged with local pop culture, including meeting the creator of the popular Labubu doll, but also held high-level meetings with top Chinese government officials, including Vice-Premier He Lifeng and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.

The meetings reportedly focused on strengthening Apple’s commitment to the Chinese market, promoting cooperation, and discussing the company’s growth in the region. Importantly, Cook’s presence coincided with the regulatory clearance for the iPhone Air’s eSIM functionality, paving the way for the long-delayed launch.

The combination of the CEO’s personal endorsement and the removal of the regulatory block seemed to have unleashed pent-up consumer demand, with the iPhone Air getting sold out in major metropolitan centers like Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin in minutes.