Qatar Economic Forecast

Qatar was the fastest growing economy in the world according to real GDP Growth Rate statistics for 2010. Since 2008, Qatar has consistently ranked among the top three nations for real GDP Growth, with 19.40 percent growth in 2010 ahead of Singapore and Turkmenistan. Analysts believe Qatar will continue to grow exponentially over the next few years owing to rising oil and natural gas prices.

Qatar was the fastest growing economy in the world according to real GDP Growth Rate statistics for 2010. Since 2008, Qatar has consistently ranked among the top three nations for real GDP Growth, with 19.40 percent growth in 2010 ahead of Singapore and Turkmenistan. Analysts believe Qatar will continue to grow exponentially over the next few years owing to rising oil and natural gas prices.

In 2010, Qatar produced 76.98 billion cubic metres of natural gas as well as an average of 1.213 million barrels of oil per day. However present rates of production will cause Qatar’s oil reserves to run dry by 2023. The Qatari government has diverted its focus and resources to the production of natural gas as a result. Qatar possesses 25.47 trillion cubic metres of natural gas in its proven reserves, accounting for 15 percent of the world’s reserves. Qatar has the third largest proven natural gas reserves in the world behind Russia and Iran.

Economic diversification remains a long-term plan for Qatar outlined in its “National Vision for 2030”. The “National Vision for 2030” reveals Qatar’s desire for a diversified economy with an enhanced private sector free from dependence on hydrocarbon industries. Qatar aims to achieve this through: 

• Expansion of industries and services with competitive advantages derived from hydrocarbon industries.
• Design and development of economic activities in which Qatar can specialize, including the technical and human requirements of these activities.
• A knowledge-based economy characterized by innovation; entrepreneurship; excellence in education; a world-class infrastructural backbone; the efficient delivery of public services; and transparent and accountable government.

Qatar’s GDP Forecast

In 2010, Qatar usurped Luxembourg’s position as the world’s wealthiest nation according to GDP Per Capita (PPP). In the same year, Qatar’s GDP (PPP) grew by 16.95 percent from US$128.26 billion in 2009 to US$149.995 billion.

Rising world oil prices will raise Qatar’s GDP (PPP) further in 2011. By the end of 2011, Qatar’s GDP (PPP) is expected to reach US$180.05 billion, signaling a 20.05 percent growth. Qatar’s GDP Per Capita (PPP) is also expected to grow by 15.41 percent in the same period from US$88,232.51 to US$101,826.85.

By 2015, Qatar’s GDP Per Capita (PPP) is projected to be significantly higher than its nearest competitor, Luxembourg, at US$116,996.84 with annual growth between 2.15 percent and 6.54 percent. Qatar’s exponential GDP (PPP) growth is unlikely to last more than a few years, and is expected to slow down from 2013 onwards. Nevertheless, this will still mean a GDP (PPP) of US$241.986 billion by 2015.

Qatar’s Unemployment Forecast

Qatar has the second lowest unemployment rate in the world at 0.5 percent. There have been no official forecasts in to unemployment figures, however historic data from the past 4 years suggests it’s unlikely to increase.

One possible reason for Qatar’s low unemployment rate is the amount of expatriates who currently reside and work in Qatar. While official statistics don’t provide precise numbers, it’s estimated nearly three-quarters of Qatar’s 1.7 million population in 2010 were foreign nationals with temporary residency status.

Foreign nationals also represented a large majority of Qatar’s 1.202 million labour force. According to a 2008 report by Qatar’s General Secretariat for Developmental Planning, 93 percent of the labour force were non-Qataris. The influx of non-Qataris is expected to fuel Qatar’s population growth over the next few years with an annual growth rate of between 3.97 to 4.03 percent from 2010 to 2014, reaching a total population of 2.068 million in 2015.

Qatar’s Inflation Rate & Current Account Balance Forecast

After a period of high inflation (average consumer price change) from 2006 to 2008 and deflation in 2009, Qatar’s inflation rate reduced significantly to 1.033 percent in 2010. From 2011 to 2015, inflation is expected to stabilise, ranging from 3.024 to 4.005 percent annually.

Qatar’s current account balance grew by 40.22 percent in 2010 from the previous year, reaching US$19.714 billion, giving Qatar the 17^th largest current account balance in the world. However, this growth is likely to be eclipsed in 2011’s from growth expected at 83.93 percent, giving Qatar  the 11^th largest current account balance in the world.