Kenya Economic Forecast

Within East Africa, Kenya is the heart for import/export trade. Unfortunately, serious issues have developed because of growing corruption, as well as this country depending heavily on a number of major favorable that still has depressed prices. In fact, the International Monetary Fund or IMF suspended Kenya’s Enhanced Structural Adjustment Program designed to improve the economy because reform was not sustained and corruption was not slowed. Kenya’s economy has also been hit hard because of a serious drought from 1999 to 2000.

Within East Africa, Kenya is the heart for import/export trade. Unfortunately, serious issues have developed because of growing corruption, as well as this country depending heavily on a number of major favorable that still has depressed prices. In fact, the International Monetary Fund or IMF suspended Kenya’s Enhanced Structural Adjustment Program designed to improve the economy because reform was not sustained and corruption was not slowed. Kenya’s economy has also been hit hard because of a serious drought from 1999 to 2000. With this, output for agriculture, fisheries, farming, and agrarian has declined, and energy and water were rationed. All of these problems combined left the Gross Domestic Product or GDP for Kenya at 0.2% at the close of 2000. Thanks to a new country leader, some progress in slowing corruption has occurred but with pending loans delayed from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, challenges still exist. While some lending has resumed, unless the high level of cronyism and nepotism corruption can be controlled, Kenya is in for challenges long-term.

Kenya GDP Forecast

Kenya has a market based economy, one with a liberalized foreign trade policy. However, with this country relying on tourism and agricultural production has made this country extremely vulnerable specific to the highs and lows associated with the international market. The Kenya GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollar) has struggled primarily because of ongoing corruption. This added to foreign aid frauds, fund advancements by international agencies were delayed from 2005 to 2006. Unless this country can establish a stable government, economic growth is unlikely. In looking at Kenya’s GDP for 2008, we see reported numbers were at $30.31 billion in US dollars. For the next 24 months, a small increase of 7.98% was experienced, closing 2009 at $32.724 billion and positioning the country at number 82 for world rankings. Turning to 2010, forecasters expect a very small increase from 2009 to 2010, putting year-end numbers at $34.24 billion but for 2015, predictions are dramatic, showing closing numbers around $62.228 billion (United States currency).

Kenya Unemployment Forecast

Although the Kenya population is more than 39 million, this country has been plagued by extreme mortality because of the AIDs epidemic. This has caused higher numbers of infant mortality, lower life expectancy, low population growth rates, and higher overall death rates. The 17.5 million people working in Kenya are involved with various sectors but the latest numbers for the Kenya unemployment rate are outrageously high at 40%. Obviously, this shows the seriousness of Kenya’s economy and the great need for reform.

Kenya Inflation Rate Forecast

Although this country faces a number of different challenges, the Kenya inflation rate is one. For the past six years, this rate has remained more than 9% and in fact, inflation reached a staggering 26% in 2009 due to the country’s budget deficits and political instability. Inflation for this country was at 13.10% at the end of 2008 and by 2009 numbers had changed slightly to 11.75% because of the 10.31% decline. Experts believe inflation for 2010 will end up around 8.01% and for 2015 the rate is expected to be at 5%.

Kenya Current Account Balance Forecast

Another important aspect of this country is the Kenya current account balance. For 2008, the balance was at a negative $2.11 billion in US dollars. Only a small reduction was experienced over the next year, which closed 2009 at minus $2.035, which put the country’s world ranking at number 142. Change for 2010 is extremely small, pushing the current account balance to a negative $2.30 billion but for 2015, more significant changes are expected that would put the latest numbers at minus $1.549 billion in United States dollars.