Rising Violence Threatens Burundi Economy

Over 13 people were killed over the weekend, with 240 lives lost since April due to escalating political violence, according to Bloomberg Business. The turmoil comes a decade after a bloody civil war between the majority Hutu and Tutsi minority, claiming 300,000 lives. President Pierre Nkurunziza’s return to power has fueled the current crisis, and the opposition questions his legitimacy. The IMF expects the Burundi economy to shrink by 7.2 percent from the instability.

Over 13 people were killed over the weekend, with 240 lives lost since April due to escalating political violence, according to Bloomberg Business. The turmoil comes a decade after a bloody civil war between the majority Hutu and Tutsi minority, claiming 300,000 lives. President Pierre Nkurunziza’s return to power has fueled the current crisis, and the opposition questions his legitimacy. The IMF expects the Burundi economy to shrink by 7.2 percent from the instability.

The president’s third term lies at the heart of the conflict, but the latest episode of violence harkens back to the East African country’s bloody past. Civil war began in 1993, when President Melchior Ndadaye, the nation’s first democratically elected leader, was assassinated at the hands of the Tutsi-led army. This sparked a brutal conflict that lasted until 2006, but the turmoil is currently a political struggle rather than an ethnic one because Hutu and Tutsi people have joined forces against the government.

Nkurunziza supporters contend that he should continue ruling because his first term was voted by parliament instead of the populace. However, the opposition is not buying such an argument, and insurrectionists pose a major threat to his power, with defense forces amassing in the north. Nkurunziza’s third term is a violation of a peace accord that eventually ended the civil war, and the United Nations fears the violence could fuel a return to the country’s tumultuous past.

International Ramifications

Most of the dead include opposition members from various parties, including the ruling party CNDD-FDD. With many having been tortured or outright assassinated, the government maintains that its forces are trying to reestablish order, but the United States responded by booting Burundi from a vital trade pact that granted African nations access to U.S. markets. European powers and the U.S. also threatened to impose sanctions on Burundi because of human rights violations.

Other than sanctions and trade restrictions, however, the world community will do little as neighboring nations face internal issues, and the rest of the world has shown little interest in drastic engagement. While some analysts do not expect a brutal civil war seen from previous decades, the international community is concerned that violence could further destabilize the country and the region at large. The recent conflict caused over 180,000 people to flee to surrounding countries.

Economic Downfall

Burundi is a poor nation, but it contains 6.0 percent of the planet’s nickel. Roughly 40 percent of the economy relies on agriculture, exporting such goods as coffee and tea. The good news is that the tea sector has remained undamaged by the civil strife, as tea exports skyrocketed over 60 percent in response to Kenya’s diminished output in the past few months. With that, other sectors of Burundi’s economy remain in peril, and the economy will plunge if a coup takes place, which is a likely outcome without potential peace negotiations.