North Korean Nuclear Tensions After Artillery Attack On Southern Island

There have been reports that North Korea and South Korea have traded artillery fire across the disputed Northern Limit Line (NLL) to the west of the peninsula in the Yellow Sea.

At this point, details are still sketchy. South Korean news reports have reported that around 2:30 p.m. local time, North Korean artillery shells began landing in the waters around Yeonpyeongdo, one of the South Korean-controlled islands just south of the NLL.

There have been reports that North Korea and South Korea have traded artillery fire across the disputed Northern Limit Line (NLL) to the west of the peninsula in the Yellow Sea.

At this point, details are still sketchy. South Korean news reports have reported that around 2:30 p.m. local time, North Korean artillery shells began landing in the waters around Yeonpyeongdo, one of the South Korean-controlled islands just south of the NLL.

Reportedly, North Korea has fired as many as 200 rounds, injuring at least 10 South Korean soldiers, damaging buildings and setting fire to a mountainside. South Korea responded by firing some 80 shells of its own toward North Korea, dispatching F-16 fighter jets to the area and raising the military alert to its highest level. This is reportedly consistent with South Korean standard operating procedures.

The attack comes as South Korea’s annual Hoguk military exercises are under way. The exercises are set to last nine days and include as many as 70,000 personnel from all branches of the South Korean military.

An emergency Cabinet meeting has been convened by South Korean President Lee Myung Bak Meanwhile Seoul is deciding on whether to evacuate South Koreans working in North Korea.

Military activity appears to be ongoing at this point. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff are meeting on the issue. North Korea’s leadership are also expected to be convening.

Nov. 22 there was South Korean rhetoric about the return of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula. The United States has said that it has no plans at present to support such redeployment.

But North Korea also on Nov. 22 sent a list of delegates to Seoul for talks with South Korea, a move reciprocated by the South, ahead of planned talks in South Korea set for Thursday.

The timing of this attack then, seems to contradict the other actions currently under way in inter-Korean relations.

With the ongoing leadership transition in North Korea, there have been rumors of discontent within the military. The current actions may reflect miscommunications or disagreements within North Korea’s command-and-control structure or worse, the leadership.

Low-level border skirmishes particularly across the NLL are not uncommon. This March, the South Korean naval corvette ChonAn was sunk in the area. This is suspected to have been caused by a North Korean torpedo.

In recent years tensions have been at a peak.  The sustained bombardment of a populated island by North Korea would mark a deliberate and noteworthy escalation.

Via Stratfor