Markets

Notoriously Inaccurate African Data Requires a Second Look

In November 2010, Ghana Statistical Services announced new and revised gross domestic product (GDP) estimates. As a result, the estimated size of the economy was adjusted upward by more than 60%, suggesting that in previous GDP estimates economic activities worth about US$13 billion had been missed.

Featured Articles

South Korea's Social Demands Outpace Social Spending

South Korea’s economic rise since the 1960s could be attributed to many factors: its geographic position, a homogenous and hard-working population, sound economic governance exercised by authoritarian governments, and a conducive geopolitical environment. It has economically matured, having raised its per capita income fivefold since the 1950s, when it was estimated to be lower than India’s.

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How Turkey Looks Post-Coup

After last Friday’s failed coup attempt in Turkey, a measure of calm has returned to global markets.  We did not think Turkish developments have wide-reaching implications for EM assets, but we do remain very negative on Turkish assets in the wake of the coup and ongoing political uncertainty.

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Does Taiwan's President Provoke China or Her Party?

Taiwan’s new president Tsai Ing-wen faces a dilemma. If she continues her Kuomintang (KMT) predecessor Ma Ying-jeou’s rapprochement with Beijing, she risks enraging independence-minded members of her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The alternative is grimmer — provoking China after years of cordiality.

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Investors Anticipate Fiscal and Monetary Stimulus from Japan

The US dollar is broadly mixed against the major currencies.  The Swiss franc's 0.25% gain puts it at the top of the board, after sterling's earlier gains were largely unwound in late-morning turnover.  The yen is the weakest major, extending its loss by 0.6%, to bring the weekly decline to more than 5%.  The pre-referendum result high for the dollar was near JPY106.85.  Today's high has been about JPY106.30. In emerging markets, we note that the Taiwanese dollar is at 11-month highs, helped by $3 bln portfolio capital inflow this week.

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The Brexit is One of a Multitude of Issues Facing Philip Hammond

Philip Hammond, the UK’s new Chancellor of the Exchequer, has a lot on his plate. He faces a slowing economy urgently in need of stimulus. He confronts tough choices over public spending and will be under pressure to reverse the austerity policies of his predecessor. The question for Hammond is not whether to stimulate the economy, it is when and how.

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North Korea's Collapsing Command Economy's Affect on Women

Important changes are taking place inside North Korea. The collapse of the command economy, and the emergence of capitalism in its place, is ongoing. A burgeoning moneyed elite and increasing exposure to foreign pop culture are transforming how North Korean femininity is conceived. These changes are reaching far beyond Pyongyang to affect many, if not most, women in the country.

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Keep Spain on Your Radar

With Brexit, the pressure on Italian banks, and the surge and then sell-off in the yen, Spain may have been pushed off some investors' radar screens.  There are three important developments to note.

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Can Africa Achieve First World Status?

One of the most hotly debated topics in development economics is what does it take to steer a poor country from Third World to First World status?  It is a debate of particular relevance in Africa, which is home to a large number of countries in the Third World category.  It also has some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

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The EU Crisis Prevention Rules Probably Need a Rethink

The European Union, still nursing wounds from its crisis over the euro and “Grexit,” is facing a much more severe threat that strikes at the very heart of the EU’s legitimacy. In addition, the problem concerns the very measures put in place to resolve the earlier crisis, which nearly led to a Greece exit from the Eurozone.

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How to Successfully Wield a Supermajority

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, have won 70 of the 121 seats up for grabs in the upper house triennial elections held on Sunday 10 July. The seats obtained in the upper house are not only many more than the ruling coalition’s 61 seat target, but deliver a two-thirds majority in the upper house for constitutional revision when taking into account other pro-revision political parties.

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China's Changing Economy...it will Take a While

China is undergoing profound changes in its economic policy and structure. These changes represent a new model of Chinese economic growth. The recent Five Year Plan (FYP) is an evolutionary document. Building on earlier official statements on the new model of growth, it provides the most elaborate statement to date on the model’s content and implementation.

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