Markets

Gauging the EU's Risk of Losing Italy

In the aftermath of the Brexit tensions, Italy is defying Brussels to bail out troubled banks and preparing for constitutional referendum in October. If Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fails to achieve adequate support, economic destabilization will shift from the UK to Italy – which could pave way to the rise of anti-establishment left or right.

Featured Articles

How did China Accumulate so much Corporate Debt?

Since the mid-2000s, Chinese corporate debt has risen sharply as a proportion of GDP — from around 100 percent to 164 percent in 2015. By comparison, this ratio is 67 percent in the United States and 103 percent in Japan. The rapid build-up of debt has prompted concerns regarding China’s financial and macroeconomic stability.

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Rio Olympics: That's Going to Leave a Mark

On the eve of the Rio Olympic Games, host Brazil is struggling through one of the deepest crises in its history.  It wasn’t supposed to be this way.  In 2009, when the 2016 Games were awarded to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil was on a roll. President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva proclaimed: “Now we are going to show the world we can be a great country.”

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Malaysia's 1MDB Highlights Deeper Problems

The 1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB) scandal in Malaysia, which has recently become the subject of a high-profile lawsuit by the United States Department of Justice’s asset recovery initiative, highlights the problems with state-ownership in the Malaysian economy.

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Stay on Target: China's Slower Growth

Assuming no surprises in the second half of the year, China’s growth in 2016 will remain near the target of 6.5 percent reflecting structural transition in the mainland, secular stagnation in the West and post-Brexit tensions globally.

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Japan Gender Gap Scorecard

Women in Japan voted and stood for office for the first time on 10 April 1946. It was the country’s first postwar election and the first election after the Japanese government amended the Electoral Law to include women. Of the 79 female candidates, 39 were elected to Japan’s national parliament, the Diet.

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Can President Xi's Administration Wipe Out Poverty?

China has had remarkable success in alleviating poverty. According to World Bank statistics, over the past several decades China has accounted for more than 70 percent of reductions in global poverty. The poverty-stricken population in China has plunged from 770 million people in 1978 — the year before economic reforms began — to 55.8 million in 2015. In addition, the Human Development Index (HDI) for China has improved by 43 percent between 1990 and 2013, compared to an improvement of 17.6 percent globally.

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What's Up for the Emerging Markets?

EM ended last week on a firm note, helped by the weaker than expected US Q2 GDP report as well as the small bounce in oil.  With the RBA and BOE expected to ease this week, the global liquidity backdrop remains favorable for EM and “risk.”  US jobs report Friday will be very important for EM going forward.

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Indonesia Leads EM Headlines with a Cabinet Reshuffle

Indonesian President Widodo shuffled his cabinet.  The most important change is Sri Mulyani Indrawati coming back as Finance Minister.  She is very well-respected by the markets, and held the same Finance post from 2005-2010.  Widodo also appointed two retired generals to important posts.  Former Defense Minister Wiranto will become Coordinating Minister for Politics, replacing Luhut Panjaitan, who becomes Minister for Maritime Affairs.

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This Yahoo has Nothing to do with that Yahoo

Many undergraduates in Nigerian universities dabble in internet fraud. Nicknamed “yahoo-yahoo” after the international web portal and search engine, this perfidy has become a way of life for the young con-artists. Many of these fraudsters – dubbed “yahoo-boys” – have become filthy rich.

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