Emerging Markets

EM assets start the week under some mild pressure. This comes after last week’s rally, which was fed by the positive combination of stabilizing commodity prices, continued dollar softness, and falling US yields. Those impulses are likely to continue this...

1) China stimulus continues, 2) Stymied India reform efforts, 3) Brazil’s fiscal outlook has worsened after the lower house passed an amendment to boost pension payments, 4) Polish political risk is rising, 5) The Russian central bank bought USD for...

EM assets are again being pulled in two directions.  EM equities are getting a boost from the PBOC rate cut over the weekend, while EM currencies are starting soft this week as the strong US jobs report puts Fed lift-off...

1) The Brazilian central bank indicated less FX swaps and additional monetary tightening, 2) After a delay, Israel has a new government, 3) Saudi Arabia will open up its stock market to foreign investment, 4) The Argentine political outlook has...

EM assets remain on the defensive now that the dollar has regained some traction on the back of some firmer US data last week.  This Friday’s US jobs report will be key to determine whether the dollar’s current bounce is...

1) Unconventional policy measure in China could be on the table; 2) Poland sold sells its first international bond with a negative yield; 3) Indonesia executed eight people over drug charges, seven of which were foreigners; 4) Russia’s central Bank...

It is a mixed start of the week for EM, though the short-term outlook is constructive.  The rebound in commodity prices has changed relative risk perception across the producer-importer spectrum.  Iron ore, for example, is up some 25% since the...

Over the last week, Hungary (+4.8%), Brazil (+4.6%), and Russia (+4.4%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while India (-4.5%), Thailand (-2.3%), and Egypt (-2.0%) have underperformed.  To put this in better context, MSCI EM...

Given the absence of any major US data, China and Europe will attract the markets attention.  EM sentiment starts the week caught in a crosscurrent.  Given the absence of any major US data, China and Europe will attract the markets...

Over the last week, China (+6.3%), Argentina (+4.8%), and Hong Kong (+1.39%) have outperformed in the EM equity space, while India (-1.5%) and Czech Republic (-0.9%) underperformed. In the EM local currency bond space, longer date yields in Turkey (+34...

EM assets are starting the week on a now familiar pattern:  weaker currencies but stronger stock markets.  The broad dollar rally is back in force, with the greenback pushing back against earlier cycle highs against many of the major currencies. ...

Over the last week, China (+8.7%), Russia (+8.1%), and Hong Kong (+6.0%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while Czech Republic (-0.9%), Egypt (-0.9%), and Taiwan (-0.2) have underperformed.  To put this in better context,...

EM currencies are starting the week off firm, helped by the weak US jobs data on Friday.  While we continue to see the US economy’s weakness in Q1 as transitory, risk sentiment should remain fairly strong near-term as Fed rate...

EM currencies are starting the week under pressure again from a broad based dollar recovery. While expectations for a Fed lift-off remain in flux, the recent rebound in the dollar suggests that on a relative basis, the US economic and...

EM FX ended last week on a firm note. We believe that the broad-based dollar rally remains intact, but we could see a period of consolidation until the interest rate backdrop becomes more positive for the dollar. The week after...