Emerging Markets

Commodities are back under pressure, sending ripples through various assets classes. Let us start with a recap of recent moves and drivers.  In short, it looks like the risks are still bearish for energy and industrial metals, but not so...

Between the “no” in the Greek referendum and a sharp drop in oil and commodity prices, EM is starting the week on a bad note.  Therefore, we think this is a week to be defensive.  There has been limited contagion...

EM assets start the weak on a soft note, driven by risk off sentiment stemming from Greek developments.  The weekend PBOC easing measures had little impact, with China stocks adding to their recent losses.  With another strong US jobs report...

1) The Brazilian congress passed a new measure that will hurt the fiscal outlook, 2) Brazil central bank kept the inflation target for 2017 the same at 4.5%, but narrowed the tolerance band to +/ 1.5 percentage points, 3) Israel...

EM assets are starting the week off on a firmer footing.  Sentiment has been helped by optimism over a Greek compromise, as well as perceptions of a less hawkish Fed.  Both of these factors could turn negative very quickly.  Besides...

1) The EU sanctions on Russia will be extended for another six months, 2) Lawmakers in Hong Kong voted down a Beijing-backed plan to change the political system, 3) Argentine presidential candidate Scioli of the ruling alliance has picked Zannini...

In a familiar refrain, EM starts this week on a soft note.  Most EM currencies are softer against the dollar.  MSCI EM is having trouble gaining traction, and appears headed for the March lows.  EM bond yields are rising in...

When the dollar starts to gain ground, it comes as a double-edged sword for economies in the emerging markets. Generally a strong dollar means more expensive imports for the emerging markets especially from the US. On the other hand, this...

1. Turkey looks to have a coalition government for the first time since 2002.  2. Brazil’s central bank is reducing its rollover of FX swaps.  3. Hungary recorded the first positive y/y CPI reading in 8 months.  4. MSCI deferred...

EM has started the week on a weak footing.  The results of the Turkish elections knocked the lira down over 3% and the BIST down nearly 6%.  More broadly speaking, the uncertainty surrounding the Greek situation along with the risk...

1) Political risk is rising in Colombia, 2) Petrobras issued debt for the first time in six months, 3) The Russian central bank suspended some FX auctions, stepping up measures to counter RUB strength, 4) Tensions between Ukraine and Russia...

EM assets are starting the week off on a soft note, picking up where we left off last week.  The usual culprits can be cited:  firmer US dollar, softer commodity prices, global growth slowing, and Fed tightening concerns.  However, the...

1) Brazil’s Senate finally approved the much discussed fiscal measure, 2) Poland’s ruling party lost control of the presidency, 3) The conflict in the South China Sea is heating up again, 4) The key JPY/KRW cross has fallen to its...

Emerging markets currencies are somewhat directionless at the moment, caught between an unclear trend for the dollar and oil prices in a broad yet volatile range since the start of the month. Moreover, the uncertainty about the timing of the...

1) Petrobras reported stronger than expected Q1 earnings, 2) A Colombian court ordered a delay to the sale of the government’s 57.6% stake in hydropower company Isagen, 3) The Mexican government cut its growth forecast for the year by a...