Recession Recovery and the Tale of Two Dollar Rallies
The dollar-value of all the goods and services the US produces has never been larger. Two other metrics capture the recovery. These two Great Graphics come from the Wall Street Journal and draw from Census Bureau figures. The dollar-value of all the goods and services...
A Missed Opportunity for Indonesia
As ASEAN meetings in Vientiane concluded in September 2016, an air of anxiety was already beginning to settle over the Southeast Asian nations. Further resistance against China’s maritime assertiveness in the South China Sea is proving increasingly futile. As ASEAN...
Malaysia’s Next Election Sure to be a Bit of a Mess
On 29 June this year, Lim Guan Eng, the Chief Minister of Penang state and Secretary General of the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP), was arrested and charged with two counts of corruption and abuse of public office. On 29...
China’s Growth Augmented by the Diaspora
In 1995, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade published a 350-page report on overseas Chinese business networks, calling them ‘one of the main forces driving the dynamic growth that characterises the region’. This interest reflected the economic clout of...
China’s Eventual Leadership Role
For a great power to lead the world there are a few qualities that it should bring to the table. These include, but are not limited to, material strength, an aspiration for recognition, and sufficient international support. Does China currently...
A Malaysian Odd Couple
On Monday 5 September 2016, former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad did the unthinkable. He turned up at the High Court for Anwar Ibrahim’s filing of an interim injunction to stop the enforcement of the newly passed National Security Council...
Mixed Results in the Rest of Asia over the BOJ’s Policy Decisions
Like other central banks in advanced countries, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) adopted an unconventional monetary policy after the 2007–2009 global financial crisis (GFC). After Prime Minister Abe advocated the new policy regime, Abenomics, the BOJ became highly aggressive in...
Teeing Up the Emerging Markets
EM ended last week on a soft note. Perhaps it was the North Korean nuclear test (see below). Perhaps it was disappointment in the ECB or rising Fed tightening odds. Whatever the trigger was, EM FX weakness persisted and appears...
India, North Korea and Mexico Dominated the EM Headlines
In the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, Colombia (+4.1%), Hong Kong (+3.9%), and China (+3.6%) have outperformed this week, while Thailand (-4.4%), Qatar (-3.3%), and the Philippines (-2.7%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM...
By One Standard, Indonesians Fall Behind Academically Early On
Indonesia has consistently underperformed in the Program for International Student Assessment test — a standardised test administered by the OECD to measure the academic performance of 15 year olds. More recently, the OECD also administered the Programme for the International...
Could THAAD Backlash Derail Regional Harmony?
South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s unilateral decision to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system has sparked serious backlash and protests at home. Many South Korean voters argue that the THAAD’s powerful radar system would make...
Can Duterte’s War on Drugs Succeed Where Thailand’s Failed?
The Philippines has scaled up its war on drugs with devastating consequences. President Rodrigo Duterte’s tough talk and anti-drug platform has led to a staggering number of vigilante killings and the mass incarceration of people associated with drug use and...
New RBI Governor Patel Faces Many Challenges
Urjit Patel took over as Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on 4 September 2016. At 52 years of age, he is among the youngest to be appointed to the position. Hopefully this is indicative of a broader...
Is China’s Gender Equality Movement Taking a Backseat to Economic Growth?
One of the distinctive features of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the Mao era was its commitment to women’s liberation. In April 1949, six months before the declaration of the People’s Republic, the first national women’s conference was held...
China Welcomes the G20 to SimCity
China is gearing up to hold the G20 summit in its eastern city of Hangzhou. It’s a fitting location for the leaders of the world’s 20 leading economies (19 countries and the EU) to meet. Famed for its beauty, Hangzhou is also...