Get Ready: A Dozen Countries on the Brink of Default

Spain’s government party gets trounced in local elections, Fitch cuts Greece’s credit rating and S&P’s outlook downgrade of Italian sovereign debt has sent credit markets into a tailspin. Many of Europe’s fringe states lacking the growth they need to escape their debt traps – and now the costs of insuring sovereign debt of eurozone states is rising again, as markets begin to be believe in the inevitability of some sort of restructuring event.

Spain’s government party gets trounced in local elections, Fitch cuts Greece’s credit rating and S&P’s outlook downgrade of Italian sovereign debt has sent credit markets into a tailspin. Many of Europe’s fringe states lacking the growth they need to escape their debt traps – and now the costs of insuring sovereign debt of eurozone states is rising again, as markets begin to be believe in the inevitability of some sort of restructuring event.

Related: A 2008-Scale European Financial Crisis This Year? Niall Ferguson

Related: What Will Make the Great Financial Crisis Look Like Child’s Play? The Next One: Gordon Brown

Business Insider ranked the top countries most likely to default by today’s intraday CDS price, or the cost to insure each country’s debt. It isn’t a perfect ranking of what country is likely to default first, or when, but does show a growing consensus from market participants that the crises in these states is getting worse. (A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.)

1. Greece

• Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1393.33
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1334.83

Read Greece Economic Forecast

2. Venezuela

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1026.92
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1052.31

Read Venezuela Economic Forecast

3.  Portugal

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 663.67
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 639.47

Find Portugal Economic Statistics

4. Ireland

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 662.83
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 639.82

Read Ireland Economic Forecast

5. Argentina

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 612.77
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 605.52

Read Argentina Economic Forecast

6. Ukraine

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 450.02
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 443.00

Find Ukraine Economic Statistics

7. Lebanon

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 359.35
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 355.00

Read Lebanon Economic Forecast

8. Vietnam

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 305.45
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 300.61

Read Vietnam Economic Forecast

9. Spain

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 275.67
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 261.69

Read Spain Economic Forecast

10. Croatia

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 264.83
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 257.52

Read Croatia Economic Forecast

11. Hungary

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 260.00
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 256.63

Find Hungary Economic Statistics

12. Romania

• Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 230.17
• Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 228.87

Read Romania Economic Forecast