After over 20 years of sanctions and international pariah status, Myanmar has begun to come in from the cold. It has taken the 2010 elections, a new ‘civilian’ president and the by-elections of early 2012 to convince the international community that the transition to democracy is ‘real’.
Yellen’s presentation at Jackson Hole today is the highlight of the week. It also marks the end of the summer for many North American and European investors. It may be a bit of a rolling start for US participants, until after Labor Day. However, with US employment data next Friday, many will return in spirit if not in body.
The aftermath of the Brexit referendum has intensified the debate on alternative templates for the UK’s relationship with the European Union. The “Norway option”, an arrangement that allows Norway access to the single market without being a member of the EU, is often proposed as a transitional station on the journey towards Brexit’s final destination.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) judgement on the South China Sea ruled that there is no legal basis for Chinese ‘historical rights’ within its claimed nine-dash line. China did not accept the judgement and has instead continued its maritime and aerial activities in the region.
The US dollar remains mostly within the ranges seen yesterday against the major currencies. The market awaits fresh trading incentives and the end of the summer lull, which is expected next week. The Jackson Hole Fed gathering at which Yellen speaks tomorrow is seen as the highlight of this quiet week.
Immigrants have become a major scapegoat in recent years for sputtering Western economies.
Former Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, and now a professor at the University of Rochester used this Great Graphic in a recent Bloomberg column.
Kocherlakota was a dove when he was at the Fed and remains dovish. He is concerned that the US economic performance is, as he says, not what it seems. By this, he means it is weaker than the GDP figures suggest. He acknowledges the US has grown faster than the other high-income economies. He dismisses it because the US population has also grown faster, but the participation rate has not.
Barack Obama began his presidency with a dramatic gesture, which captured the world’s imagination and won him the Nobel Peace Prize. Speaking in Prague in 2009, he declared that the United States would work towards abolishing nuclear weapons. Since then, for over seven years, nothing has happened. Now that might be about to change.
The US dollar is going nowhere fast. It is narrowly mixed against the major currencies. The market waits for fresh trading incentives, with much hope placed on Yellen’s presentation at Jackson Hole at the end of the week. Is it too early to suggest that the build-up ahead of it is too much?
In December 2015, China announced that its priorities for the upcoming G20 Hangzhou summit were to make the global economy more innovative, invigorated, interconnected and inclusive. However, China is struggling to deliver practical outcomes in these areas because many of them are challenging domestic issues that lack a global focus.
Luckily, G20 finance ministers and trade ministers identified practical outcomes on the global financial safety net, growth and trade, which could be delivered, provided China is willing to broaden its priorities.
