The only way to explain the largest swing in the euro in six years yesterday is to appreciate the disconnect between what was expected and what was delivered by the ECB. Draghi’s urgency and commitment to do “what it must” fanned expectations, and more importantly, substantial positions, in various asset classes–short euros, long European debt, and equities. The washout was dramatic.
This year has been one of high expectations and of disappointment in Southeast Asia. Rarely has the economic and strategic importance of the region been as apparent. As China’s economy is transitioning towards ‘a new normal’ marked by lower growth, investors have looked to ASEAN as both an alternative and a complementary market to China.
Development researchers cover many dimensions when discussing poverty in developing countries. Numerous studies have focused on the size of the response of the poverty rate to growth of real per capita income, usually stated in terms of income or growth elasticity of poverty. However, almost all these studies consider the global or regional magnitude of the elasticity, overlooking cross-country variations in the response of poverty to income growth.
Market participants knew that volatility would rise today with the ECB meeting. What they got was far worse than could have been anticipated.
The Federal Reserve ventures closer to raising interest rates in a move that could impact the cost of mortgages, car loans, corporate bonds, and a variety of other debts throughout the financial world. According to the Federal Reserve, “economic activity increased at a modest pace in most regions of the country” from October to November, indicating that the Fed sees enough data points to justify raising interest rates.
The much-anticipated ECB meeting is at hand. Yesterday’s disappointing Eurozone CPI figures only fanned the anticipation. Today the service PMI was softer than expected at 54.2, down from 54.6.
What will Draghi do? There are four moving parts.
The results of the November 2015 ‘double election’ for the Osaka Prefectural governor and Osaka City mayor are in. The regional Osaka Ishin no Kai candidates won both positions with huge margins, defeating their rivals — including those supported by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and other national political parties.
It is rather exceptional in Japan that both the governor of a prefecture and the mayor of a city within that prefecture represent a regional political party.
The anticipation is nearly over. The softer than expected preliminary EMU inflation figures encourages expectations for the more aggressive range of actions by the ECB tomorrow. Draghi has claimed that movement toward the inflation target was too slow. Today’s data showed a 0.1% increase year-over-year in the headline rate. The market had anticipated a 0.2% increase. Although the ECB targets headline inflation, it clearly also tracks core inflation. Core price increases slowed to 0.9% from 1.1%.
When you send off a CV to a prospective employer, you will hope to get a fair hearing. You will hope that your skills, experience and qualifications decide the response, rather than the school you went to, your post code, or even your name. Instinctively, though, we know that this isn’t always the case.
Prime Minister David Cameron already has zeroed in on the issue of how applications from people with non-Anglo-Saxon or Celtic names are treated:
Globalisation needs global institutions of governance.
In the wake of the 10th meeting of G20 leaders at summit level in Antalya, Turkey on 15–16 November, now is a good time to reflect on the state of global governance.
The roots of globalisation lay in the quest for empire. The combination of church and state meant that some of the early attempts at global governance were through religious institutions, such as the Papacy and the Caliphate.
