As two mega-regional preferential trade agreements — the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) — loom closer to completion, India must move towards higher trade standards. Trade diversion from non-member countries of these mega-regional trade agreements is likely to occur and could be detrimental. This is a serious concern for developing countries cut out of the talks.
Americans do not plan to spend money received from their tax refunds or saved thanks to lower gas prices in a sign that aggregate demand remains depressed.
A new survey of over 1,000 Americans by Principal Financial Group showed that over half of respondents do not plan to spend their refunds on consumables, opting instead to save the money or invest it. A significant portion—35% of total respondents—said they will use the money to pay down debt, while a minority 18% said they would buy consumer products such as electronics, jewelry, and clothing.
The US dollar has given back most of yesterday’s gains though the euro has been unable to resurface above $1.09. The uptrend that marked most of Q1 has morphed into what appears to be a range affair. However, the range trading is deterring fresh position taking. A review of the gross currency positioning from the latest Commitment of Traders report show that for the most part bulls and bears have been trimming exposures.
On 19 December 1984, amidst great fanfare, the United Kingdom and China signed the Sino–British Joint Declaration on the Question of Hong Kong. It contained extensive guarantees of Hong Kong’s autonomy, rule of law, and fundamental rights — all of which would remain entrenched until 50 years after the transfer of sovereignty. On signing day, Deng Xiaoping confidently declared to Margaret Thatcher that ‘China will always keep its promises’.
Americans are demanding less services from non-manufacturing industries in another indicator that the economic recovery is slowing.
A new report from the Institute of Supply Management shows non-manufacturing activity fell from February to March, as the non-manufacturing index (NMI) fell to 56.5 in March, down from 56.9 in February. The NMI showed a fall in business activity and production, supplier deliveries, inventories, and inventory sentiment.
EM currencies are starting the week off firm, helped by the weak US jobs data on Friday. While we continue to see the US economy’s weakness in Q1 as transitory, risk sentiment should remain fairly strong near-term as Fed rate hike expectations have been pushed out further. There are no major US data points until next week, when March retail sales report. This could give EM some further upside potential this week.
Dame Meg Taylor is no ordinary woman. The first woman to be appointed to the position of Secretary General of the Pacific Islands Forum has a proud track record of breaking boundaries on behalf of Pacific women. As PNG’s first woman lawyer and the first Papua New Guinean woman to serve her country as an ambassador, she has seen immense changes in women’s roles in the Pacific during her lifetime.
The March job numbers mark the lowest job surplus since December of 2013. The report is below analyst expectations of at least 244,000, and the energy industry cut 11,000 jobs for March. So far, the energy industry has lost 30,000 jobs in 2015.
The U.S. labor market is getting weaker, with less new jobs for unemployed Americans.
The United States saw 126,000 new jobs in March, far below expectations and well below recent job gains. Economists have cut growth forecasts on the news, with expectation that the U.S. economy saw no growth in the first quarter of 2015. The Federal Reserve has cut its GDP forecast several times in recent months, and the trend may continue as weak job growth and low-income growth combine to keep retail sales and economic activity depressed.
The US dollar firmed in thin Asian turnover, but now is slightly lower against most currencies as US traders return to their posts. Many centers remain closed and participation is light.
