Markets Archives - Page 472 of 782

Where do Emerging Markets Stand Entering Q4?

1) Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked its policy rate 25 bp to 4.75%, 2) Mexico extended its FX auctions, 3) Petrobras raised prices for gasoline and diesel for the first time in almost a year, 4) China’s central bank cut the minimum down payment for first-time home buyers, 5) The central bank of Indonesia said it will start FX interventions in the forward market, joining the growing number of countries stepping up against currency weakness, 6) Kazakhstan’s central bank hiked its base rate 400 bp to 16% and narrowed the rates corridor to +/- 1 percentage point.

China Joins the Reserve Reporting Club…Sort Of

At the end of every quarter, the IMF reports official reserve holdings. It is the most comprehensive and authoritative source of such information. This is especially true of the currency composition of the reserves, which some countries publish freely and others regard as a national secret.

The Emerging to Developed Market Hurdle

There are 195 sovereign states, according to the United Nations, and two, “observer states” (Vatican and Palestine). The high income countries in North America, Western Europe and Asia-Pacific account for about 15% of the sovereign states. Most of the rest of the world live in low and medium income countries.

Trying to Put India’s Housing Crisis in Context

The cliché “Abandon all hope, ye who enter here” from Dante’s Inferno appears more appropriate to the current housing situation in India than anywhere else. India is facing a daunting housing shortage of 49 million units (Tiwari and Parikh 2012).

Personal Incomes Rise, Home Sales Plummet

Personal incomes and spending rose, but home sales fell significantly despite expectations of growth.

Pending home sales fell 1.4% in August compared to the prior month, while remaining 6.1% above the level of total pending home sales in August 2014. The National Association of Realtors released a report containing its Pending Home Sales Index, which the NAR says indicates a fall in total home sales is coming later in the year.

All is not Lost in Emerging Markets

The end of a horrendous quarter of equities and emerging markets is generating a sigh of relief that is helping lift those battered markets. The MSCI Emerging Market is up almost 1.75% prior to the open of the Latam markets. Its Asian-Pacific Index is up 2.1%. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 2% near midday in London led consumer staples and materials. Core bond yields are firmer, including US 10-year Treasuries, which are back at 2.09% after testing 2.04% yesterday.

New House Leadership to be more Confrontational?

Two developments make a shutdown of the US government on October 1 less likely. First, the outgoing Speaker of the House made it clear he is determined to avoid the government shutdown, and with his resignation (as of the end of October), he is freed from some of the political constraints.

Are China’s Market Woes Just Business as Usual?

At the end of April 2015, FXI — China’s prestigious Xinhua China 25 index, a key indicator of China’s stock market value — climbed dramatically, reaching over US$52 per share. By 5 September, the index had dropped to a low of about US$33 per share, representing the destruction of almost 40 percent of its value for the period and trillions of dollars in total. Both retail and institutional investors in China felt the bite. As financial markets react, the question remains, what is happening in China? Is the Chinese economy likely to collapse?

India Struggles to Change the Gender Narrative

The UN declared 2015 the year for global action on development. The post-2015 agenda aims to fill the gaps in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and is far more ambitious than ever before. The year could prove crucial for integrating gender equality and women’s empowerment into the global development and climate agenda. However, will these global processes reach their intended goals? In addition, what do they entail for gender justice in developing countries like India?

Brazil Sets a Negative Tone for Emerging Markets

In a still familiar refrain, EM assets are starting the week off on a soft note. The global backdrop remains negative, with Yellen’s speech bringing Fed lift-off back into focus. US jobs data this Friday should support the notion of lift-off by year-end. Chinese data is likely to remain soft, while commodity prices are still struggling to get some traction. MSCI EM is on track to test the low from August near 763, while the EMBI Global spread is on track to test the August high near 474 bp.