Markets Archives - Page 448 of 782

Philippine Leadership in Danger of Using Up Political Capital

The Philippines has performed well in the past few years relative to its peers. It demonstrated great resilience to exogenous shocks that would have undone less capable economies. However, will it be able to sustain its positive economic position?

There are positive signs. Revised forecasts put GDP growth in 2015 between 5.7–6 percent and forecasters expect a strong rebound in the coming year. The government has maintained an official forecast of 6–7 percent. It expects higher growth in 2016, even when the current administration ends its term of office in June.

U.S. Energy Companies, Manufacturing, Take on the Chin

A leading economic indicator suggesting Texas’s economy is suffering an aggravated decline on the falling price of oil left most investors undeterred from staying with U.S. stocks. The monthly Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey showed a sudden and unexpected decline in activity, falling to a sharp contraction because of weak demand.

In Japan, the BOJ Meets This Week and the TPP is Front Burner

The Bank of Japan meets later this week. We do not think that it will expand its already aggressive monetary policy stance. Given the largely operational adjustments announced last month, it seems premature to expect substantive adjustment now. It is true that the recent string of data has been mostly disappointing, and the yen has strengthened on a trade-weighted basis over the past month.

Japan Balances Ties with China and the US

There is no doubt that China is building up its military capabilities. Nor that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe played up the threat of China, which spends three times as much as Japan does on its national defence, as a justification for new security legislation in Japan. However, deeper scrutiny of this issue requires a broader perspective on China’s strategic intentions.

Emerging Markets Bounce, but Risks Remain

EM enjoyed a nice bounce to end last week. The global liquidity outlook has clearly moved in favor of EM, at least for now. However, the overall global backdrop has not shifted in favor of EM just yet. Bottom line: enjoy this EM rally with a short-term timeframe in mind, with the idea that EM turbulence will likely return later this year.

Europe Reels on Weak Economic Data, ECB Hints at More QE

European markets are reeling as economic data points to worsening conditions despite promises that European economies will receive monetary support. European shares ended last week on a rally after the European Central Bank hinted at more quantitative easing, but many economists warn that the bounce has little to do with fundamental strength in the economy.

Brazil’s Monetary Policy Course Reversal Highlights EM News

1) Malaysia’s central bank kept rates steady at 3.25%, as expected, but cut bank reserve ratios from 4% to 3.5%, 2) S&P downgraded Poland one notch to BBB+ with negative outlook, 3) Brazil’s central bank did a complete about-face and left rates steady at 14.25%, 4) Mexico may tweak its FX auction program again when it is extended this month, 5) Argentine officials met with IMF chief Lagarde at the World Economic Forum in Davos

Asia Crisis Deepens: Japan Enters Bear Market, China Yuan Threatened

Japanese stocks officially entered a bear market on Wednesday and continue to see pressure, despite quantitative easing measures that propped up stocks in years past. The Japanese Topix index fell 3.7 percent in a day and lost over 20 percent of its value from its peak last summer. The Nikkei 225 fell a similar amount by the close, leading to an almost 14 percent year-to-date loss.

Haze Deeply Cut Into Indonesian GDP, Says World Bank

While forest fires may represent a common sight around the world, as is the damage they wreak, few regions have suffered more economic harm, as a percentage of GDP, than Indonesia did in 2015. Last year, Indonesia’s fires cost the economy at least $16 billion. That amounts to 1.9 percent of Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP), according to the World Bank.

Indian Finance Minister Predicts Positive Annual Growth

According to finance minister Arun Jaitley, India’s economy may grow as much as 9.0 percent annually, but only under the right economic conditions, according to CNN Money. The South Asian country achieved significant growth in 2015, but it was held back due to such factors as a decline in the steel industry and a heavy monsoon season. India remains the fastest growing major market in the world, outgrowing China.