Markets Archives - Page 397 of 729

Inflation Hard to Find as Import Prices Fall

Import prices fell far lower in December 2015 than in the prior month, while export prices fell nearly twice as much as analysts had expected. Import prices fell 1.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That represented the largest drop in import prices since August 2015. While fuel prices continue to decline as oil future prices flirt with sub-$30 levels, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted non-fuel prices “continued to trend down as well.”

India: The Year of Living Democratically

Last year was a high voltage year for Indian politics. Debates and deliberations across political and non-political arenas focused on the values and institutions forming the bedrock of Indian democracy. Questions of tolerance, secularity, the right to free speech and the protection of minorities’ interests became subjects for reflection in an increasingly urban India.

Meanwhile, government bans on Maggi products, beef, NGOs and pornography-provoked reactions from Bollywood celebrities as well as British and American media outlets.

The Jury is Still Out on Abe’s Successes

Last year could be remembered as a glorious year for Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. As Abe ended 2014 with a surprise visit to Yasukuni Shrine, provoking harsh criticism from close neighbours, many anticipated that the most daunting task for Abe in 2015 would be to manage issues regarding the war history.

What’s In Store for the Philippines Election Winner

The winner of the upcoming 2016 Philippine elections looks set to inherit an underwhelming legacy of lacklustre GDP growth and a shortage of infrastructure. Once again, government under-spending on projects, lower exports, outflow of portfolio investments and stagnant agricultural production has curbed growth. It was not all bad news though. The services sector, construction, manufacturing and consumption all contributed to growth, which will hopefully continue throughout 2016.

China Casts a Wider Anti-Corruption Net

As China’s anti-corruption drive is expanding from the public and corporate sector to financial institutions, some argue that it is hurting economic growth. In reality, it is the rule of law that can ensure China’s resilient growth.

India’s Modi May Have to Lower the Bar

In his first calendar year as Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi focused on economics. Through high profile trips abroad and ambitious proposals at home, Modi maintained an air of energy and initiative, but the results were modest. Meantime, domestic politics became more polarised, contributing to two high profile election defeats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in state elections.

Learning to Live with Less (Growth) in Malaysia

It has been a rather challenging year for the Malaysian economy. Political disruptions and economic shocks have rocked the nation. Prime Minister Najib Razak has been strenuously committed to undertaking fiscal reform. He has repeatedly stressed the importance of reducing fiscal deficits.

Najib intends to reduce annual deficits from an estimated 3.2 percent of GDP in 2015 to a surplus of 0.6 percent of GDP by 2020. Despite difficult circumstances, the government has taken action to achieve a balanced budget by 2020.

Emerging Markets: Broad-based Weakness and Currency Overshoots

EM starts the week under broad-based pressure. We downplay reports of competitive devaluations under way because of China’s FX moves, however. Many in EM in experiencing negative terms of trade shocks, and so their currencies are expected to depreciate. We do not think any policymakers in EM want a weaker currency, as most are fighting to lend support via intervention and other means.

Mixed Signals: U.S. Jobs Strong, Sales Weak

The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals as job growth far surpassed expectations in December, yet more companies look ready to scale back amidst weak demand. In December, non-farm payrolls rose 292,000, versus expectations of an increase by 200,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That sharp increase in jobs left the unemployment rate unchanged at 5 percent.

China’s Equity Market Form and Function

Developments in China seemed to overshadow other considerations as investors returned from the New Year. The offices were open and desks manned, yet many did not appear to be prepared to re-deploy resources. The lack of participation helps explain last week’s drama. Sellers showed up or were forced through money management practices (e.g. stop-losses or options triggered).