Category: Derivatives

CFTC: Still Awaiting Meaningful Position Changes

Summer vacations have mostly ended.  The news stream has picked up.  Yet speculators have been mostly reluctant to make meaningful changes in their exposure to the currency futures.

There are a few notable exceptions.  First, over the past several weeks, speculators have reduced gross short euro positions by more than 20% since the end of July.  It stands at 173.3k contracts, after the bears covered 16.7k contracts in the CFTC reporting period ending September 13.

CFTC: Long Position Liquidiation

Over the summer, the US dollar was out of favor with the speculators in the futures market. This means that gross long positions increased and gross short positions tended to fall.  Speculators are only short three of the eight currency futures we track, the euro, sterling and Mexican peso. 

CFTC: Are Speculators Going Missouri on the Dollar?

Speculative activity remained light in the latest CFTC reporting period ending August 30.  There were no gross position adjustments that we recognize as significant, 10k contracts or more.

There were only three gross adjustments by speculators of more than 4k contracts.  Speculators added 82.k contracts to their gross short euro position, bringing it to 190.2k contracts.  That ended a four-week stretch during which speculators covered short euro exposure. 

CFTC: No Highlight Reel for Currency Speculators

The summer lull for speculators in the currency futures market continued in the CFTC reporting week ending August 23.  Of the 16 gross currency futures positions we track, speculator adjustments were less than 3k contracts in all but three.

The bears added to their gross short sterling position for the eighth consecutive week.  The seven hundred contract increase was the smallest of the streak and lifts the gross short speculative position to 130.8k contracts, a new record.

CFTC: Oil and 10-Year Treasury Hot Spots

Summer doldrums continue to depress speculative activity in the currency futures market.  In the CFTC Commitment of Traders reporting week ending August 16 speculators made small adjustments to gross currency positions.  There was only one change more than 6k contracts.

The Aussie bulls added 9.4k contracts to their gross long position, lifting it to 68.9k contracts. Of the other 15 gross positions we track, there were only two others above 5k contract

CFTC: Are You into the Pound and Yen?

Speculative position adjustments in the currency futures continued at a low pace in the Commitment of Traders report for the week ending August 9.  There were though two distinct patterns.

The first pattern is found in the euro, Swiss franc, and Mexican peso.  In these currency futures, speculators reduced exposure.  Longs were liquidated and shorts were covered.  The adjustments were small with only the 9.8 contract reduction of the gross short euro position more than 5k contracts.

CFTC: Going on a Holiday, but not without Sterling Shorts

For a period that included a BOJ and FOMC meeting and the US GDP, speculators in the currency futures were unusually quiet.  Summer holidays with family may be more important. 

CFTC: The Euro Bears Make a Move, but That’s about It

There does not seem to be a large pattern in the speculative position adjustments in the CFTC reporting week ending July 26.  There was only one significant position adjustment (10k of more contracts).  The euro bears added another 10.3k contracts to their gross short position, which brought it to 221.8k contracts.

This is this is the largest gross short position since early January.  It is the fifth consecutive increase.  The speculative gross short position was near 123k contracts in mid-May. 

CFTC: Euro Bears Coming Out of the Woods

Speculators made several significant position adjustments in the CFTC reporting period ending 19 July.  The euro bears added to their gross short position for the fourth consecutive week and for the ninth week in the past ten.  The 16.2k contract increase lifted the gross short position to 211.5k contracts, the largest since the first week of the year.

CFTC: From the Long to the Short of It

The combination of a robust US jobs report, speculation of bolder action by Japan, the possibility that the ECB drops the capital key to overcome the ostensible shortage of some core bonds (e.g. German bunds), and the anticipation of easier BOE policy appears to have generated a change in sentiment among speculators in the currency futures market.