In numerous essays, Hugh White has argued that the US-led Asia Pacific order, which he rightly views as a source of peace and growing prosperity over the past seventy years, is increasingly outmoded. As daily events in the South China Sea attest, the current order is increasingly contested. White fears an Asia caught in the middle of a dangerous US–China rivalry that could spark conflict between the two nuclear powers.
With its rapid economic growth and integration into the global economy over the last 3 decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has emerged as a major economic power and an important source of growth for the world economy. Now it is the second-largest economy at market exchange rates and the largest exporter in the world.
While the overall financial performance of the world’s economy is not as poor as it was in 2008, the World Bank’s rate of lending is almost as high as it was in those darker days. As a result, finance ministers and central bankers from around the globe will meet in Washington this week for the spring World Bank / International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring conference.
Over the past three months and the past month, the dollar has fallen against all the major currencies but the British pound. Sterling’s underperformance can largely be explained by uncertainty created by the Tory government’s sponsored referendum on continued EU membership.
Although there is no convincing technical evidence that dollar’s retreat in Q1 is over, we suspect it is nearly complete. We will be especially sensitive to reversal patterns, divergences with technical indicators, and other signs that the move is exhausted.
The fundamental economic driver of our medium term constructive outlook for the US dollar, the divergence of monetary policy between the major central banks, relative health of the financial sector, and absorption of capacity, remains intact.
Five members of the women’s national soccer team recently filed a complaint alleging the sport’s governing body in the U.S. violated the Equal Pay Act and Title VII of the Civil Rights Act by paying them less than men.
Russia’s apparent and recent violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force (INF) Treaty suggests it may be time for Russia and the United States to make the Treaty multilateral — and, most importantly, include China.
There’s increasing speculation there will be a July 2 election in Australia this year, called shortly after the May 3 budget. Or will it be later in the year? If so when will it be called?
Well, who knows? Perhaps not even the prime minister. Certainly not the treasurer.
Regardless of whether the election ends up in July or September, the campaigning has begun, and the general community is well aware we are in an “election year”.
So is it better for the economy to have a short or long election campaign?
The whole world is looking to one presidential election at the moment: the United States of America. The policies of one of the most powerful nations, largely driven by the president, will affect us all.
In every crisis, there lies an opportunity. In addition, that applies even to a crisis as large and potentially scandalous as that revealed by the so-called Panama Papers. Over the coming days and weeks, the financial behaviour of many rich, powerful and influential individuals will come under the microscope. There will be accusations of hypocrisy – and much embarrassment.
However, some of those influential individuals have the opportunity to grasp the nettle and push for more transparency in the world’s dark financial corners.
