Category: Markets

How are the U.K.’s Police and Crime Commissioners Working Out?


Voters across 40 police force areas in England and Wales will go to the polls next month to choose their next police and crime commissioner (PCC). This is the second round of such elections. The first cohort of 41 PCCs were elected in November 2012 against a backdrop of widespread fears about the “politicisation” of the police. As a result, turnout was extremely low (at 15.1%) and in a significant minority of contests “independent” PCCs triumphed over those standing on a party ticket.

The South Korean President may have to Redefine ‘Winner’


General elections are around the corner for South Korea, scheduled for 13 April 2016. The road to the polls has been rocky, beginning with the delayed approval of electoral boundaries. The redrawn electoral map was finally passed on 2 March, more than four months past the deadline.

UK Economic Growth Weakens on Exports, Foreign Tax Evaders


Indicators of weakening conditions in the United Kingdom are alarming economists, who believe the country’s reliance on rising housing prices may be setting the country up for an economic collapse.

A new survey of businesses in the United Kingdom shows that corporations are seeing weaker confidence and investment, both of which have fallen to “a low ebb.”

WTO: Vietnam Scores “Impressive” Import/Export Growth in 2015


The World Trade Organization (WTO) recently released its “World Trade 2016 and Prospects 2016” report. In it, the only nation to achieve “impressive” import-export growth in 2015 was a surprising Southeast Asian nation: Vietnam.

The report analyzed the performance of 30 of the leading import-export economies of the world that are members of the WTO. None of the other nations reviewed showed results for import-export growth last year that were as high as Vietnam’s.

After the South Korean Election, Gridlock Likely to Remain


South Korea goes to the polls on 13 April. Up for grabs are the 300 seats of the unicameral National Assembly. However, the election itself has been overshadowed by the declining popularity of President Park Geun-hye and intense infighting within the ruling Saenuri (New Frontier) Party between pro- and anti-Park camps.

Low Oil Price Benefits to South Korea


The global energy situation is changing rapidly. The shale revolution has led to plunging oil prices that have remained around US$30 a barrel since OPEC’s failure to reach a consensus to cut oil production at its November 2014 meeting. This is an astonishing drop from the seemingly endless period of high oil prices of above US$100 a barrel. What do falling oil prices mean for the South Korean economy?

Emerging Markets could Feel the Effects of This Week’s Fed Speakers


Some dovish signals from the Fed and a bounce in oil prices helped EM end last week on a firm note.  This week, the US retail sales report could be important, and the same goes for CPI and PPI data too.  The Fed’s Dudley, Kaplan, Harker, Williams, Lacker, Lockhart, Powell, and Evans all speak this week.

The Fed releases its Beige Book Wednesday for the upcoming FOMC meeting April 27.  Within specific EM countries, risks remain in place.  We continue to feel that markets are too optimistic regarding the impeachment process in Brazil.  

Federal Reserve Assures Recession is not Imminent


Fighting increasingly worrying data about the American economy, the Federal Reserve has made a plea to the world to remain calm.  A historically unprecedented presentation by the last four Federal Reserve chairmen—Janet Yellen, Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan, and Paul Volcker—focused on how the economy remains on a “solid course,” despite increasing evidence that a recession might be looming.

The phrase comes from standing Chair Yellen, who added that the U.S. has made “tremendous progress” from the financial crisis of 2008.

Accusations Continue Flying over the South China Sea


Recent developments in the South China Sea are a serious cause for concern for Southeast Asian states, which have a huge interest in ensuring the safety and security of these waters given their importance for international shipping. Ongoing militarisation in the disputed waters increases the risks of unintended military confrontations, threatening regional stability.

Philippine Voters are Drifting Away from the ‘Establishment’ Candidates


The Philippines will hold their presidential election on 9 May 2016. The dramatic campaign was until recently seen as fight between four major candidates, each gathering a roughly equal share of the vote.