Markets Archives - Page 428 of 782

The Latest from Japan’s Ministry of Finance

The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan’s Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise. We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier. We use simple convention of the week by the last rather than the first day. That means that the report for the week ending April 1 is the first week of April. To smooth out the volatility, we will often refer to a four-week average. The latest MOF report was released earlier today.

UK Government Study: Brexit to Cost Taxpayers Thousands

A new study by the UK government argues families in the country will pay £4,300 ($6,185) more in income taxes if the country leaves the EU. After an aggressive charm offensive to urge British voters to vote to stay in the EU, the country’s Treasury released a study saying that Brits would be “worse off by £4,300 a year per household if Britain votes to leave European Union,” according to the Treasury.

‘Big Daddy Xi’ Leads China’s Charge

This year marks the 40th anniversary of the death of Chairman Mao and with it one of the lowest points in the political history of the People’s Republic of China. The nation that had stood up in 1949 was, at the time of Mao’s death, a much poorer and weaker society following decades of failed economic policies and constant social mobilisation. Out of this mess, a new generation of leaders embarked on a project to rebuild the country and make China an indispensable part of the international economy and global society.

China’s Slowing Growth Shows Stabilizing Signs

Despite international skepticism, China’s first-quarter data suggests economic resilience amid global challenges, while structural transition prevails in the medium term.

According to new data, China’s economy grew by 6.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016. While it reflected the slowest quarterly growth since the global financial crisis, some key indicators such as fixed-assets investment growth and retail sales suggest that the economy is stabilizing.

Malaysia Defaults on Payment Deal: Trouble Abounds for Prime Minister

1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), a strategic development company that the government of Malaysia owns, defaulted on a $1.1 billion loan from a United Arab Emirates wealth fund. Prime Minister Najib Razak founded 1MDB and has faced a string of corruption allegations surrounding the firm, and critics have called for his resignation. 1MDB is a developmental firm designed to commence infrastructure projects and attract foreign direct investment.

Recession Signals Highlighted as U.S. GDP Growth Stagnates

As the Federal Reserve continues to see weakening GDP growth, a new report from Bloomberg News suggests a hidden recession signal for the United States. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow calculation, which uses large data sets to make real time GDP predictions, sees just 0.3% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016, far below many analysts and economists’ expectations.

The Federal Reserve highlighted a decline in real residential investment growth from a Census Bureau study, which saw just 8.5% growth versus previous 9% projections.

Are We Missing a Big Infrastructure Opportunity?

The US presidential selection process is well underway, and yet there has been no coherent discussion of fiscal policy. In part, this is because it does not appear particularly urgent. The US deficit peaked in 2009 at 10.1% of GDP. Last year it stood at what for most OECD countries an enviable 2.6%. This year and next, it is forecast by private sector economists to reach 2.9%.

India’s Budget Take Three

When India voted in the Narendra Modi government with a stable majority in the last election in 2014 it was widely expected to pave the way for major changes. However, political obstacles and a tendency to follow the path of least resistance have limited progress. The new direction, which emphasises infrastructure, agricultural productivity and marketing as well as health, education and training, governance and making it easier to do business, is the right one — but implementation is critical.

Homebuilders See No Boost as Fed Caution Mounts

Further worries about the economy are coming from the Federal Reserve as homebuilders’ expectations drop. According to a new study by the National Association of Homebuilders, firms see little signs of renewed strength in demand for new homes as prices continue to skyrocket and wages stagnate.

The NAHB’s Housing Market Index (HMI) remained at 58 for the third month in a row, despite expectations of an increase, leading to a “cautiously optimistic” outlook for construction growth this year, according to NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.

Under the Surface of the Australian Sub Deal

Australia’s selection of a replacement for its Collins-Class submarine, termed the SEA1000 program, is entering its final stages. The competitive evaluation process set up by Australian government is nearing completion as the five-person Advisory Expert Panel finishes its consideration of French, German and Japanese bids.