Is America at Risk of Not Participating in a Changing China?


Thanks to misguided stories about President Xi’s reforms, America risks losing the opportunity to participate appropriately in China’s massive economic rebalancing and reform drive.

In their Animal Spirits, George A Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller, two Nobel Prize winners, show how human psychology drives the economy and why it matters for global capitalism. In particular, they show how stories move markets and are themselves a real part of how the economy functions.

Published
Categorized as China

Chinese President Amasses Political Support


Before Chinese President Xi Jinping left China for the U.S., he had been attending the funerals of former officials, hoping to garner allies as China contends with a lagging economy, reports Reuters. The president maintains that China’s economy is stabilizing against the backdrop of a turbulent world economy. China has suffered through market instability, a declining yuan and lower domestic demand.

Could the Ukraine Crisis Benefit China?


The impact of the Ukraine crisis on the geopolitical order in Europe and beyond is clear. Although China is not directly involved, many Western observers believe that it is the biggest winner from the crisis. The argument is that Western sanctions mean Russia will move closer to China while the United States has to shift its attention back to Europe, thus moderating its rebalancing efforts to counter a rising China. Ultimately, the argument goes, this creates a new strategic opportunity for Beijing.

Published
Categorized as China

IMF Reports Australia Will Suffer Most from Slowing Chinese Investments


The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently released a report regarding which nations will suffer the most loss resulting from China’s slowing investment growth. According to the IMF, Australia will be the worst hit advanced economy, with only developing economies Iran, Kazakhstan, Saudi Arabia, Zambia, and Chile suffering a bigger loss.

Shinzo’s ‘Abenomics’ Appears to be Losing its Sheen


Japan’s markets will reopen Thursday.  The day after, Japan expects to report that core inflation fell back below zero for the first time since April 2013.  Abenomics has lost its shine with the economy contracting in four of the past seven quarters.

In some ways, Abenomics was a typical LDP program of fiscal and monetary expansion but on steroids.  The reforms that are part of the third arrow have largely failed to capture the imagination of investors though we see the corporate governance reforms as significant.

Published
Categorized as Japan

New Japan SDF Legislation Breaks from History


In the wee hours of the morning yesterday, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)–Komeito coalition muscled a suite of security-related bills through the upper house of the Diet. The bills, now certain to become law, fundamentally re-draw the legal parameters of security cooperation in which the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) may now engage.

Published
Categorized as Japan

Can the Next Indonesian Election Achieve Lofty Goals?


On 9 December, Indonesia will have its first simultaneous local executive elections to elect governors, district heads and mayors in 269 localities (out of 537) across Indonesia. While direct election of local executives has been held since 2004, this is the first time these elections will be held simultaneously on a single day.

Published
Categorized as Indonesia

Japanese Politics Hear from Students


Recent student protests in Japan against the Liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) proposed changes to constitutional reinterpretation have Japan watchers asking ‘is the sleepy Japanese student waking up?’ However, what if they were never asleep or they were just waiting for the alarm clock to go off?

Published
Categorized as Japan

Overcoming Obstacles to Reform and ‘Clean Up’ China’s SOEs


China’s next Five-Year Plan is due for formal approval by the National People’s Congress in March 2016.  One of the areas of focus is the role of China’s State-Owned Enterprises, generally viewed with suspicion by the West and seen within China as bloated and in need of a cleanup.

Published
Categorized as China

Sri Lanka’s Attempt to Strike a Balance between India and China


Former president Mahinda Rajapaksa’s failed bid to return to power as Sri Lanka’s prime minister is seen by many as a major blow for Beijing’s growing influence in the country and the region. The outcome of August’s parliamentary elections, which followed Rajapaksa’s ouster in January, seems to signal a return to Sri Lanka’s more traditional foreign policy orbit: balancing India’s security sensitivities with its pursuit of other relationships, including with China.

Published
Categorized as Sri Lanka