The Week in Review: Sluggish Home Starts, Higher Existing Home Sales


Mixed data on housing surfaced this week as existing home sales saw a surprising upstart even as weak new home buying caused fear about homebuilders’ long-term profitability.  Existing home sales rose by 5.1% in March, according to a new study by the National Association of Realtor (NAR). The NAR said higher activity in the Northeast and Midwest, historically weak regions after the 2009 Global Financial Crisis, helped drive overall sales higher.

Is Higher Education Making the Grade in Vietnam?


Vietnam has announced a bold new higher education reform agenda. The government of Vietnam will offer up to 10,000 government scholarships for overseas doctoral study between 2014 and 2020 (or 1300–1500 per year) to tertiary and research institute staff. The so-called 911 Project will also offer scholarships to qualified non-academic professionals committed to tertiary teaching careers.

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Categorized as Vietnam

Securing the India-Myanmar Border a Top Priority


On 31 March 2016, a tribunal set up by the Indian government upheld a ban on the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) (NSCN(K)) for five years. The case pertains to the 4 June 2015 attacks carried out by NSCN(K) insurgents on Indian military personnel, which claimed the lives of 18 Indian soldiers.

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Categorized as India

The Latest from Japan’s Ministry of Finance


The following observations are drawn from the weekly report of Japan’s Ministry of Finance unless noted otherwise.  We use the weekly data instead of monthly to identify changes of trend earlier.  We use simple convention of the week by the last rather than the first day. That means that the report for the week ending April 1 is the first week of April.  To smooth out the volatility, we will often refer to a four-week average. The latest MOF report was released earlier today. 

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Categorized as Japan

UK Government Study: Brexit to Cost Taxpayers Thousands


A new study by the UK government argues families in the country will pay £4,300 ($6,185) more in income taxes if the country leaves the EU.  After an aggressive charm offensive to urge British voters to vote to stay in the EU, the country’s Treasury released a study saying that Brits would be “worse off by £4,300 a year per household if Britain votes to leave European Union,” according to the Treasury.

‘Big Daddy Xi’ Leads China’s Charge


This year marks the 40th anniversary of the death of Chairman Mao and with it one of the lowest points in the political history of the People’s Republic of China. The nation that had stood up in 1949 was, at the time of Mao’s death, a much poorer and weaker society following decades of failed economic policies and constant social mobilisation. Out of this mess, a new generation of leaders embarked on a project to rebuild the country and make China an indispensable part of the international economy and global society.

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Categorized as China

China’s Slowing Growth Shows Stabilizing Signs


Despite international skepticism, China’s first-quarter data suggests economic resilience amid global challenges, while structural transition prevails in the medium term. 

According to new data, China’s economy grew by 6.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2016. While it reflected the slowest quarterly growth since the global financial crisis, some key indicators such as fixed-assets investment growth and retail sales suggest that the economy is stabilizing.

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Categorized as China

Malaysia Defaults on Payment Deal: Trouble Abounds for Prime Minister


1Malaysia Development Berhad (1MDB), a strategic development company that the government of Malaysia owns, defaulted on a $1.1 billion loan from a United Arab Emirates wealth fund. Prime Minister Najib Razak founded 1MDB and has faced a string of corruption allegations surrounding the firm, and critics have called for his resignation. 1MDB is a developmental firm designed to commence infrastructure projects and attract foreign direct investment.

Recession Signals Highlighted as U.S. GDP Growth Stagnates


As the Federal Reserve continues to see weakening GDP growth, a new report from Bloomberg News suggests a hidden recession signal for the United States.  The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow calculation, which uses large data sets to make real time GDP predictions, sees just 0.3% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016, far below many analysts and economists’ expectations.

The Federal Reserve highlighted a decline in real residential investment growth from a Census Bureau study, which saw just 8.5% growth versus previous 9% projections.

Are We Missing a Big Infrastructure Opportunity?


The US presidential selection process is well underway, and yet there has been no coherent discussion of fiscal policy.  In part, this is because it does not appear particularly urgent.  The US deficit peaked in 2009 at 10.1% of GDP.  Last year it stood at what for most OECD countries an enviable 2.6%.  This year and next, it is forecast by private sector economists to reach 2.9%.