Category: Economics

Can Beijing and Taipei Get Along?


The historic meeting in Singapore between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Taiwanese counterpart, Ma Ying-jeou, on 7 November was the first ever between the leaders of the two countries. With the next Taiwanese presidential elections only two months away, the meeting was seen by many observers as a last-minute attempt by the Chinese government to persuade the Taiwanese electorate that the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) remains the best choice for dealing with Beijing.

A December to Remember


December will be a month to remember.  ECB President Draghi continued to fan expectations of further accommodative measures at the December 3 meeting.  At the same time, the strength of last week’s US employment report, reinforced by comments from the Fed’s leadership, has convinced many that lift-off is likely a fortnight after the ECB meeting.  Following the jobs data, a Reuters, poll found 15 of 17 primary dealers expect the Fed to hike rates next month.

A Busy Data Digestion Day Ends the Week


The US dollar has stabilized after yesterday’s flurry that shook out some weak short euro and yen positions.  The push through $1.08 was a new opportunity to short the euro by short-term traders.  Disappointing Eurozone GDP data provided mode fodder for the euro bears and the single currency has retreated nearly 3/4 of a cent from yesterday’s highs.

The Refugee Crisis and Climate Change have a Common Denominator


One of the predominant news stories over the past few months has been the migrant crisis in Europe.

Driven by civil wars, refugees from the Middle East and beyond are flowing into the European Union. Over the next 18 months, the UN is expecting more than 1.4 million refugees to arrive in the EU.

The swell will have many long-term implications, but governments and citizens are facing a more pressing question: what policies should they adopt toward refugees in the short term? Should they welcome them, reject them or something in between?

More Land Does Not Mean More Affordable Housing


An increase in land supply is the usual solution put forward to solve the housing affordability crisis. What proponents of this argument fail to mention is that you need an industry prepared to deliver housing on that land and any development must be profitable to occur.

The models used by the sector to determine profitability assume both revenue and land value will be maximised. This immediately presents a barrier to delivering housing affordable to those on low to moderate incomes.

Taking a Country to Court


The ink is dry and the full text of the major trade deal between the US and 11 Pacific Rim countries, the Trans-Pacific Partnership or TPP, is available to the public. And it contains plenty of lessons that can be applied to the ongoing negotiations between the US and European Union over the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, or TTIP, geared toward removing trade barriers between the two.

Indonesia’s Jokowi Comes to the US Looking for Investment


Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was in Washington DC recently for his first-ever presidential visit to the United States. What can the two countries do now to build on the momentum for cooperation gained on the trip?

What if the Fed Rate Hike Comes Too Soon?


After 271,000 were jobs added in October, US unemployment rate fell to 5.0 percent. Meanwhile, average annual hourly earnings climbed by the most since 2009. As a result, the dollar strengthened and treasuries plunged. The report was a green light for the Fed’s chief Janet Yellen and her deputy Stanley Fisher, who recently held out the possibility of a December rate increase.

The Iberian Peninsula Grabs Headlines


The US dollar is firm within fairly narrow ranges that have prevailed this week as the market consolidates its recent gains.  Draghi’s comments to the European Parliament are similarly dovish in tone to the October post-ECB press conference.  Sterling posted outsized gains yesterday, pushing above $1.5200, and those gains extended to almost $1.5250 today before sterling sold back to $1.5175, leaving it almost flat against the euro.

Calculating the Benefits of Nonprofits


A recent article in The Atlantic highlighted a growing trend in economic aid of giving money directly to the needy, often without strings attached. The spread of smartphones is fueling this, which makes it a breeze to offer a few dollars to someone almost anywhere in the world – not just a person passed on the street.