After the shellacking it took after the shockingly poor jobs data, the US dollar has only managed a shallow recovery against the euro and yen. The euro peaked near $1.1375 before the weekend. The mild pullback to almost $1.1335 drew some fresh buying.
Through the first part of the year, the swinging pendulum of expectations for the trajectory of Fed policy has been a major driver in the foreign exchange market. This is true even though the ECB and BOJ continue to ease monetary policy aggressively.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars appear to be influenced more by the shifting view of Fed policy than the expectations in some quarter that the RBA and RBNZ could cut interest rates as early as this week.
The US dollar reversed higher on May 3 and trended higher. It peaked on May 30, but it was not clear until the poor US jobs report sent the greenback reeling on June 3. The fact that May 3-May 30 move is over is the most important technical consideration for the dollar’s outlook.
It is interesting to recall that the dollar had bottomed a fortnight before the FOMC minutes and Fed comments had encouraged the market to re-price a summer hike. The dollar now has peaked prior to investors pushing out the rate hike once again.
The ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) came into being in December 2009. It has played a tremendous role in enhancing regional and national capacities for disaster response in the region.
The recent ‘ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management’ document provides thoughtful insights on how AADMER can move towards a more people-centred, sustainable and better-networked approach. However, these suggestions do not directly address the disproportionate impact disasters have on women.
A gloomy outlook is enveloping the world’s economies. There are concerns too that countries are failing to sufficiently focus on long term policy responses to reverse the decline in global growth. Some argue that the global growth slowdown may be permanent, highlighting the danger of a period of chronically low growth, or what economists term “secular stagnation.”
No inclusive growth is conceivable without success in Nigeria’s anti-corruption drive. Today, that struggle is increasingly global. In mid-May, the world’s first anti-corruption summit took place in London. During the event, the chair, UK Prime Minister David Cameron was caught on open mike disclosing to Queen Elisabeth II that attendants included some “fantastically corrupt” countries, including Afghanistan and Nigeria.
A microscopic gain in jobs and a steady unemployment rate indicate gradual improvements in America’s job market. Two separate reports on the labor market indicate improvements for workers, with both the Department of Labor and ADP, a private payrolls firm, showing muted robustness for Americans.
“Every thinking person in America is going to vote for you Governor Stevenson,” said an enthusiastic voter. “I am afraid that won’t do. I need a majority,” reportedly quipped Stevenson (1952 or 1956).
Activity in the global capital markets is subdued. Yesterday’s moves are being consolidated, and the dollar has been confined to narrow ranges. The euro is in a quarter cent range, while sterling is in a 50 cent range and the dollar has been confined to about two-thirds of a yen.
Hardly anyone paid attention when Trinidad and Tobago Prime Minister Dr. Keith Rowley visited Ghana early in May 2016. The lack of interest was probably because of economic realities. Major markets like the US and China are looking less towards West African and Caribbean nations as energy producers. There’s been a dramatic collapse in commodity prices.
