Polls strongly suggest that Taiwan’s vibrant democracy will have its third change of government in 16 years when they hold elections on 16 January. The first change of government took place in 2000 when the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won the presidency against the ruling Kuomintang (KMT), which had split before the election. The second occurred in 2008 when President Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT won a landslide victory.
The political contest between the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for the January 2016 presidential and legislative elections dominated Taiwan’s 2015. Since 2008, President Ma Ying-jeou’s China-friendly policies have increasingly linked Taiwan’s economic wellbeing and socio-political concerns to the question of whether further economic integration is beneficial to Taiwan and, more broadly, the future of Taiwan as an independent sovereign state.
China–Taiwan cross-Strait relations are under renegotiation in the face of significant domestic developments in Taiwan. These developments include the ruling Kuomintang’s (KMT) resounding defeat in the local ‘nine-in-one’ elections in November 2014, the influence of the Sunflower student movement, and the predicted opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win in the January 2016 presidential and legislative elections.
For the fourth straight quarter, Taiwan has leapt ahead of other Asian economies in terms of expansion. Expected first-quarter report results should demonstrate growth of about 3.5 percent, according to a report by Bloomberg News. That would put it at least one full percentage point ahead of South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong. As such, Taiwan may become the model by which other economies, particularly around Asia, measure their own success.
In the past decade and a half, despite some ups and downs, economic and then political relations between Taiwan and mainland China have gone from strength to strength. The election of Chen Shui-bian as President of Taiwan in 2000 saw a period in which political relations were tense, even though trade shares multiplied rapidly. Chen was pro-Taiwan independence. The turning point came when Chen, nonetheless, lifted the ban on direct trade with the mainland in 2001 and with Taiwan’s and China’s accession to the WTO at the end of 2001.
The results of Taiwan’s local elections, held in November, came as a big surprise to many not only in Taiwan. The ruling Kuomingtang (KMT) suffered defeat by an unprecedented margin. The results were a sharp reversal from those of the 2012 presidential election, won by the KMT. In the municipal mayoral elections, the KMT came away with only one out of six municipalities and five out of sixteen municipal cities and counties. The results have significantly changed Taiwan’s political landscape. But they are not a referendum on cross-strait relations.
It has been widely argued that the defeat of Taiwan’s ruling Nationalist Party’s (KMT) in the ‘nine-in-one’ local elections revealed nationwide disillusionment with the government. The opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won 13 of the 22 cities and counties, and the KMT only managed to retain six of the 15 localities that they had previously held. Though overall voter turnout was approximately 68 percent, 70 percent of 20–29 year olds went to the ballot box — one of the highest youth turnout rates in Taiwanese history.
Politically and economically, 2014 proved to be an extremely bad year for President Ma Ying-jeou and his ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party. Economic stagnation and public discontent over worsening social disparities continue to plague Taiwan. Mass demonstrations indicate that Taiwan’s citizens have much more pressing concerns than Taiwan–China relations.
Recent demonstrations in Taiwan against a trade deal with China reflect the public’s deep mistrust with the mainland. Yet Taiwan needs these trade deals to sustain its economy, not just with China, but with the rest of Asia.
Taiwan’s demonstrators occupied its legislature on March 18 to 24 to resist a new trade bill with the mainland. And yet, Taiwan needs regional economic integration to sustain its economy.
The Taiwanese government has agreed to ease investment caps for Chinese firms looking to buy bigger stakes in local financial institutions, reported AFP on Monday, with both nations keen to improve relations as economic integration deepens.
