Category: United States

Surprise Inflation in U.S. as Services Grow Pricey


Wholesale prices rose in October despite falling oil prices and lower energy costs.

The producer-price index (PPI) rose 0.2% in October after falling 0.1% in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Expectations for a 0.1% decline were far off due to a rise in trade services, which rose 0.8% in October after rising 0.2% in September.

Transporting and warehousing costs were flat, while other services prices rose 0.1%.  In total, services prices rose 1.6% year-over-year in October, mostly in line with the prior five months.

What the new Republican congress REALLY Means for the Economy


The historical impact of Republicans taking over the senate this year has given the Republicans a powerful chance to reshape the landscape of the United States that has been in turmoil these last six years. This is mainly because of President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, which, if you look at the numbers, is anything but affordable. 

The Week in Review: U.S. Stocks, Unemployment Rise as Dollar Falls


U.S. stocks saw a small gain despite an unexpected rise in jobless claims that disrupted a steadily declining unemployment rate over the past few months. Meanwhile, recent strength in the U.S. dollar turned soft as the currency consolidated towards a more mixed view.

Despite Free Trade Agreements, U.S. Exports Fall


The U.S. government’s budget deficit fell to its lowest level since 2008 as the trade deficit rose due to weaker demand for U.S. products abroad and Federal cost-cutting at home.

Optimism Slays Bears on Japan Cash, Cheap Gas


Stocks surged late last week as Japan surprised markets with a new bout of quantitative easing and low oil prices brought cheaper gas to more American pumps.

Falling Mortgage Rates and Slowing Home Prices Boost U.S. Consumers


Despite slowing home sales in early 2014, economists are expecting a strong home buying market in 2015 as a combination of decelerating home price growth and falling mortgage rates make homes more affordable for Americans.

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level Since 2000


Surprising economists and investors who expected deflation and constrained growth from falling oil prices, unemployment claims cratered to their lowest level in nearly a generation.

Unemployment claims fell to 264,000, down 8% from the prior week’s level, which remained unrevised. The Department of Labor reported that unemployment claims fell far below expectations, bringing the four-week average of unemployment claims to 283,500, the lowest level since June 2000.

U.S. Economic Suspicions are Proving Correct


The market is a fickle mistress.  At the end of September, and at the start of this month, we pushed against the hawkish read of the Fed’s dot-plots.  We resisted talk of a Fed hike in Q1 15.  We explained that the Fed’s policy signal emanates from the Troika of leaders, Yellen, Fischer and Dudley.  We warned that the US economy had lost some momentum at the end of Q3 and into Q4.  We had wrongly anticipated a softer employment report, but our larger economic suspicions are proving correct. 

Gold Slumps as Deflation Fears Replace Inflation Hawks


Gold dipped below $1,200/oz. last week before recovering above that level in trading Monday, as inflation hedges lose favor amongst investors fearing low growth and lackluster monetary policies could yield deflation in the world’s most advanced economies.

Manufacturing, Construction Fall as U.S. Economy Shows Weakness


Both manufacturing and construction in the U.S. saw anemic growth in September, counter to expectations for a steadily improving American economy.

The Institute for Supply Management released its September 2014 PMI, which fell 3.4 points to 56.6% from the prior month. This is the second consecutive month of steep declines in the ISM index, indicating that demand for manufactured goods in the U.S. and abroad is weakening.