Retail sales enjoyed strong end-of-year gains, with e-commerce growing at a rapid rate. In total, retail sales in brick and mortar stores rose 3.1 percent year-over-year in December, according to a new study by the National Retail Federation.
Import prices fell far lower in December 2015 than in the prior month, while export prices fell nearly twice as much as analysts had expected. Import prices fell 1.2 percent on a month-over-month basis in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That represented the largest drop in import prices since August 2015. While fuel prices continue to decline as oil future prices flirt with sub-$30 levels, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted non-fuel prices “continued to trend down as well.”
The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals as job growth far surpassed expectations in December, yet more companies look ready to scale back amidst weak demand. In December, non-farm payrolls rose 292,000, versus expectations of an increase by 200,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That sharp increase in jobs left the unemployment rate unchanged at 5 percent.
Three separate studies show improvement in the U.S. job market, but investors globally express concern that growth expectations extend far beyond reality. The Gallup Good Jobs index, which measures jobs that offer 30+ hours per week of employment and a regular paycheck, saw a small improvement. According to new data released Thursday, the index rose 0.1 point to 45.3 percent in December, above the 44.9 percent reading in November.
A structural decline in the American economy looms as several economic indicators weaken significantly at the same time. In November, the United States trade balance weakened by $42.4 billion, with exports falling to $182.2 billion.
Store sales saw higher growth for the last week of 2015, as post-holiday sales enticed more activity than a year ago. Clearance sales drew “a strong response” according to Redbook Research, a retail research firm.
After a sharp decline at the beginning of the week, stocks surged strongly as rising oil prices and higher consumer spending indicate improvements for parts of the U.S. economy. Inventories of U.S. crude fell, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
A new study shows that crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels in the week ending December 18th, which constituted a far greater move than analysts had expected, as many predicted total inventories to see a small rise from the prior week.
Oil Prices Spike
Real GDP rose 2 percent in the third quarter, after rising 3.9 percent in the second quarter, a sharp deceleration that analysts expected despite lower energy costs that have failed to stimulate personal consumption. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the growth in GDP was partly due to a better-than-expected environment for investment, as inventories fell less than feared.
In America, investors’ concern over the prospect of defaults that could emerge in the corporate credit world, which has swollen in value by trillions of dollars since the financial crisis, rose this year.
The Federal Reserve Bank in Cleveland measured the median Consumer Price Index at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in November, above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent inflation target. Meanwhile, the median CPI has risen 2.5 percent over the last 12 months and the CPI excluding food and energy, volatility components that often receive steep discounts, rose 2 percent.
Since the summer, only September saw a decline in CPI, which fell 0.2 percent. However, the trimmed-mean CPI, median CPI, and CPI less food and energy all posted sharp increases.
