The United Kingdom has voted by a close margin to leave the European Union. Here, experts from around the world react to the news which has sent shockwaves around the world and what it means for their country. This article will update.
France
Frédérique Berrod, professor of public law, Sciences Po Strasbourg and Antoine Ullestad, PhD candidate in European law, University of Strasbourg
British people have woken up to the news that their country has voted to leave the European Union. Along with this, there has been turmoil in financial markets – the pound has hit a 30-year low and the FTSE dropped more than 8%.
Though the Brexit process will probably take two years (and the UK will remain a full member of the EU in the meantime), some aspects of the decision will affect British people straight away.
The UK’s referendum is underway. The capital markets are continuing the move that began last week with the murder of UK MP Cox. The tragedy seemed to mark a shift in investor sentiment. Sterling bottomed on June 17 just ahead of $1.40. Earlier today in Asia, after more polls showed a move toward remain, sterling rallied to almost $1.4845, its highest level since last December.
British voters head to the polls this week to decide whether to “remain” in the European Union or “leave” it. The most recent surveys suggest the outcome is too close to call, with those favoring an exit holding a slight lead and many undecided.
It is not just that the polls indicate that the outcome of the UK referendum is too close to call, but the mere fact that the referendum is being held in the first place is significant. It was not Labour, but the Conservative Party that brought the UK into the EU in the first place (and in the 1975 referendum Thatcher was campaigning for Bremain) and into the ERM. Now the issue is tearing the party apart.
The UK’s EU referendum is too tight to call, which will virtually ensure protracted economic uncertainty, market volatility and political risk. The worst has already happened.
The betting and events markets have shifted more decisively than the polls in favor of the UK to remain in the EU. Sterling extended its rally from $1.4010 last Thursday to nearly $1.4785 today, as the market participants adjust positions.
What is particular striking is that the asymmetrical perceptions of the personal impact of a vote to leave the EU. The Great Graphic here was posted on Business Insider, which took it from Kantar, a research firm.
New polls of UK voters show the Brexit vote remains uncertain. After several weeks of the vote to leave the European Union gaining, more recently the polls have become murkier, with a near-tie between the leave and remain camp. According to The Financial Times, a British financial newspaper, both sides have a 44% vote, while other polls show a spread of just 1% or 2% in favor of remaining.
Campaigners for both the UK leaving and remaining in the EU have made claims regarding how a Brexit will affect the country’s finances.
There are numerous studies showing the economic costs of Brexit and the weight of academic opinion backs these estimates. However, the Vote Leave campaign does have a small group of economists who claim that the UK can be better off if it leaves the EU.
