There may be more to the Philippines’ new president Rodrigo Duterte than his tough guy image indicates. In the populist theatrics that are Filipino politics, the overwhelming election of Duterte should not have come as a surprise, even with common, but inaccurate, comparisons to the US presidential candidate Donald Trump. Unlike Trump, Duterte is an active Filipino politician and, unlike Trump, his rhetorical bluster is backed by action.
While the Aquino reforms ignited great progress in the Philippines, the new president will favor inclusive growth and greater pragmatism in foreign policies that will shape Southeast Asia’s future.
Securing a lasting peace in the southern Philippines has been an ongoing problem for the Philippine government. Marginalised Moros in the southern Philippines have legitimate grievances against the Philippine government. This much the Philippine government has recognised in signing peace agreements, most recently with the insurgent group Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF).
‘Shut up!’ ‘Go to hell!’ ‘A disgrace to your race!’ These words were uttered by the leading contender in the Philippine presidential race, Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, in April 2016. The first was directed at Australian and American diplomatic envoys after the Australia Ambassador tweeted her reaction to Duterte’s so-called ‘rape joke’. Women’s groups who filed a complaint over the incident before the Commission on Human Rights were on the receiving end of the second statement.
One thing that the current presidential campaign in the Philippines has highlighted is how liberal democracy Philippines-style continues to fail to deliver rule of law. The rule of law is, and has always been, at the centre of the discourse on the Philippine elections.
While the Aquino reforms have ignited great progress, the next Philippines president will be more independent in critical economic, political and military decisions that will also shape Southeast Asia’s future, says Dan Steinbock.
After President Ferdinand Marcos (1965-86) and a close relationship with the Reagan administration, the Philippines became known as the “sick man of Asia.” In the past six years, a new confidence has been restored by President Benigno Aquino III, 56, who enjoys the trust of most Filipinos, according to surveys.
The Philippines will hold their presidential election on 9 May 2016. The dramatic campaign was until recently seen as fight between four major candidates, each gathering a roughly equal share of the vote.
Is the so-called ‘Islamic State’ (IS) militant group gaining a foothold in the Philippines? The declaration of the first IS wilayat (province) in Southeast Asia appeared possible after Filipino and Malaysian militants from previously separate jihadist groups pledged allegiance to IS in an online video released in January 2016. Recognition from IS would certainly increase the attractiveness of Mindanao to jihadists based in Southeast Asia. However, there is little solid evidence of a formal relationship between Mindanao and IS.
The Philippine presidential campaign period officially begins on 9 February. But amid the same old spiels about political piety, not one of the five presidential candidates — current Vice-President Jojo Binay, Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte, Senator Grace Poe and Secretary Mar Roxas — has raised the most pressing issue facing the Philippines, the country’s massive population.
Economic forecasting is always difficult. The American economist John Kenneth Galbraith famously said ‘we have two sorts of forecasters: those who don’t know and those who don’t know they don’t know’. Yet, while some sceptics assert that economic forecasts are of little value, they are useful for governments and firms to develop their plans and budgets for the year ahead.
