The impact investing space is growing in Africa and could be the trigger this developing continent needs for faster sustainable development. As the MDGs are being replaced by the SDGs in 2015, new development concepts and policies are being floated for Africa to adopt. Impact investing could be one of the best strategies if embraced and well implemented across the continent.
After a year of solid achievement on the economic front, Malaysia’s leaders will face difficult circumstances as they implement reform in 2015.
One of the more impressive achievements of the Malaysian government in 2014 was the resolve it demonstrated in trying to balance the budget. Prime Minister Najib Razak inherited a budget situation characterised by a lack of fiscal discipline from previous administrations, and he made a concerted effort to address this problem.
The US dollar is slightly softer amid last minute position adjustments ahead of the US jobs data. After the outsized 321k increase in nonfarm payrolls in November, expect a more trend-like report today. The November report skewed the three-month average of 278k. The consensus calls for a 240k increase, which is near the pre-November averages. The details of the report, especially average hourly earnings, are important as well, in light of the FOMC minutes.
Predicting oil price movements is as risky as exploring for oil itself. The average price for crude fell 10.3% from the start of 2014 to the date of the Scottish independence referendum on September 18. It fluctuated over this period – but few, if any, were predicting any major move in either direction in the months to follow.
Over the last week, Russia (+10%), China (+1.7%), and the Philippines (+0.3%) have outperformed in the EM equity space as measured by MSCI, while Colombia (-7.0%), Hungary (-6.7%), and Czech Republic (-5.4%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 0.2% over the past week while MSCI DM fell -1.4%.
For Vietnam’s leadership, 2014 was another year of growing into a role as an increasingly active international player, both diplomatically and economically. Two events — the Haiyang 981 oilrig incident and TPP accession negotiations — gave Vietnam a place in the spotlight and shed light on a continued path for 2015.
The Federal Reserve believes a rise in interest rates is unlikely before April.
Notes for the latest Federal Open Market Committee state that the Federal Reserve sees low interest rates continuing throughout the first quarter of this year, despite expectations from a year ago that a rate hike would come early in 2015. “Most participants thought the reference to patience indicated that the committee was unlikely to begin the normalization process for at least the next couple of meetings,” the Committee stated in its meeting minutes.
The emphatic victory of Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the December 2014 lower house election masks a quiet power shift toward liberal-centre forces, away from nationalist right-wing forces. What this shift portends is a crucial question for the direction of Abe’s administration.
Oil prices have continued to slide. Brent briefly traded below $50. WTI is below $48. Both have fallen about 10% this week. Prices are stabilizing in late morning in Europe. However, unlike yesterday, the fall in oil prices is not sending stocks or core bond yields lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was flat, while the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is up 0.5%, near midday in London. All of the main industry sectors are higher in Europe, even energy.
After Greek elections, Brussels and Berlin can no longer shun the issue of debt relief.
Before the New Year, the Hellenic parliament rejected the nominee of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras for president. In accordance with the Greek constitution, a general election will follow on January 25.
