Markets Archives - Page 479 of 782

Predicting China’s Long-Term Growth Rate is more of an Art

Reading the latest Chinese growth projections to 2050 brings to mind Karl Marx’s aphorism that history repeats itself first as tragedy, second as farce. One of the co-authors, a Yale economics professor, told the Financial Times the ‘main point of our findings is that, contrary to common misconceptions, productivity growth under Mao, particularly in the non-agricultural sector, was actually pretty good’. But this is no argument to return to Mao-era policies, which would be a tragedy for the Chinese economy.

All Eyes are on China as Economy Struggles

Greek elections and Fed policy loom large over international markets, but the world awaits with anticipation as Chinese officials try to mitigate sluggish growth, according to Reuters. Analysts expect banking authorities to ease reserve requirements to invigorate lending throughout the nation. Overall, the government aims to achieve a growth rate of 7.0 percent for 2015.

Late Week Dollar Drubbing hit Equities and Commodities Too

It was a difficult week for the dollar, stocks and commodities, to say the least. The Chinese yuan, which had been a catalyst for some recent volatility, stabilized, and actually finished the week slightly firmer. A dovish read of the FOMC minutes and the continued decline in oil prices dampen ideas that the Fed would hike interest rates in the middle of next month.

An Emerging Markets Status Update

1) The PBOC signalled more stability in the yuan, and that is what we have, 2) The official survey by the Brazilian central bank is now showing an average forecast for 2016 GDP in negative territory for the first time, 3) There are several takeaways from mass anti-government protests in Brazil last Sunday, 4) The Turkish central bank kept all rates unchanged yesterday, but released a road map to simplify is monetary policy framework, 5) Vietnam’s central bank decided to devalue the currency for the third time this year, while Kazakstan moved to a free floating regime , 6) Poland is st

Global Equities Selloff despite Strong U.S. Data

Stocks around the world turned sharply south even as economic data from the U.S. showed strength.

India’s Thorny Nuclear Policy

India’s Pakistan dilemma continues, as Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warned that they reserve the option of using nuclear weapons. The statement was made a week before Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif in July 2015 on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organization summit at Ufa, Russia. But the meeting did little to abate either ceasefire violations along the borders or terrorism.

Look Out Below (for Falling Equities)

The US dollar is little changed against most of the major and emerging market currencies as North American traders return to their posts to close out the difficult week.

The Political, Economic and Social Fallout after Tianjin

The massive explosion that tore through the port of Tianjin on August 12 has had a profound effect on the city. As well as the terrible loss of life and the unknown environmental effects to come, its economic impact on the city and wider region will be significant. However, it will have a more lasting political effect, as the government must seek to reassure people that their welfare is prioritised above economic growth.

A Preview of Emerging Market News and Events

With the all the euphoria about the Chinese currency depreciation apparently behind us, we can again focus on other drivers for EM assets. In addition, these are developments in G10, commodity prices and idiosyncratic factors. We do not expect any barriers for Greece to finalize its bailout, with the German parliament likely to endorse the agreement soon. Markets will continue to debate the timing for the Fed hike, with a September move likely the more negative outcome for EM.

Abe Sets a Tone for Future Generations with War Apology

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s much-anticipated statement to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the Pacific War provoked relief, surprise and some ambiguity for the future. It was a relief because there had been some reports that Abe would go through with a cabinet decision to pull away from the position of the 1995 Murayama Statement, which was a clear apology to victims of Japan’s wartime aggression. That did not happen.