Markets Archives - Page 463 of 782

The Turkish Election and Central Bank News Headline the EM Space

1) The AKP won a majority in the Turkish elections; 2) Colombia’s central bank unexpectedly hiked rates by 50 bps to 5.25% and added some new FX measures to its arsenal; 3) China will lift a freeze on IPOs by the end of the year; 4) Petrobras workers went on strike; 5) The National Bank of Hungary is turning to unconventional measures; 6) Czech central bank now sees an exit from the koruna cap as likely around the end of 2016; 7) Kazakhstan has a new central bank governor

Saber-rattling over the South China Sea Could Delay Regional Plans

Recent naval manoeuvres and land reclamation activities in the Spratly Islands have drawn attention to the risk of incidents at sea leading to growing tensions and even conflict in the South China Sea. On Tuesday 27 October 2015, the United States Navy sent its state-of-the-art guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen into waters within 12 nautical miles of Subi Reef, which China claims. Chinese naval vessels shadowed the USS Lassen until it left the waters around Subi Reef and Mischief Reef.

Chinese Stocks Surge as Economy Continues to Weaken

Chinese stocks are no longer in a bear market, having risen 20% from their lowest point in August. At the same time, more indicators suggest that China’s economic growth is still worsening, with the threat of growing poverty likelier in the hardest-hit regions of the country and possibly throughout the continent.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.8% as rumors of growing government support for the falling stock market lifts prices, helping most mainland indices rise in end-of-week trading.

Hauling (in) the Mail by Going Public

The US$12 billion listing of state-owned Japan Post Holdings overnight makes it the largest initial public offering (IPO) in the world this year. In choosing to list its postal business, Japan follows the lead of Britain, which privatised the Royal Mail in 2013.

The float split out the financial and insurance arms of Japan Post, and delivered for Japanese retail investors, with the stock soaring as much as 56% on its first day of trade.

American Trade Deficit Falls as Private Sector Jobs Rise

The trade deficit in the United States fell by $7.2 billion while employment rose due to increased business activity.

America’s total trade deficit for goods and services fell to $40.8 billion in September after spiking in August, while exports rose by $3 billion from the prior month. The Bureau of Economic Analysis also noted a fall in imports, with $4.2 billion less goods and services brought into the American economy in September, a decrease of 1.8% from August.

Scottish Economy Falls Behind Rest of U.K.

According to the University Fraser of Allander Institute, Scotland’s economy will grow to 1.9 percent for 2015, a downgrade from a previous estimate of 2.5 percent. Scotland will continue to fall in 2016, but analysts expect growth to increase to 2.2 percent and eventually surpass the rest of the U.K. in 2017.

India Facing Trade and Investment Diversion

The conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations in early October 2015 has marked another substantive milestone in the global trade order. Rising doubts over domestic ratification aside, the world is keeping a wary eye open as it tries to grasp how the TPP will affect other ongoing free trade agreements (FTAs) and multilateral trade talks.

China’s President Xi Sticks with a New Growth Plan

Overnight, Chinese President Xi Jinping gave the strongest indication yet the country will revise down its economic growth goal to 6.5%.

They will have an official target when China releases its highly anticipated 13th five-year plan in March next year, but they are playing on the idea of the “economic new norm.” This means lower percentage rates of economic growth (although rates still high in international terms) coupled with structural economic reform.

No Change in Rates from the RBA for Now

The Reserve Bank of Australia has decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at a record low of 2%, but said there was scope for a rate cut down the line.

In a statement on the RBA website, governor Glenn Stevens said:

China’s Possible Population Problems

The long-anticipated abolition of China’s one-child policy is a first step in the right direction. However, they can do much more. In the West, the criticism of the one-child policy is that it is a “cruel Communist strategy.” In reality, most opponents of that policy were Marxists and the idea itself came from the West.

Overpopulation or old population?