Congo’s Civil War and…the SEC?
A civil war has raged in the Democratic Republic of Congo for more than 15 years, resulting in the deaths of millions and displacing millions more.
Category: Markets
Socioeconomic Barriers are Redefining Marriage in Japan
Discussions of sex in Japan typically spotlight the extremes of the social landscape: from the hypersexualised (2D girlfriends, hug cafes, erotic manga) to the sexless. Gender is skimmed with reference to ‘herbivore men’ and ‘parasite singles’. However, beyond the salacious and the superficial, sex and gender are topics that demand careful consideration from Japanese policymakers as well as scholars.
Positive Manufacturing Forecast despite Slump
Although manufacturing activity contracted in November, experts see growth in the sector in 2016 as the U.S. economy improves.
The Institute for Supply Management announced Tuesday that it expects manufacturing to grow at a higher rate in 2016 than what we saw in 2015. Throughout the year, the ISM expects manufacturing revenue to rise by 4.1 percent, bolstered by stronger demand from consumers.
China’s Yuan Tactics Seem to Take Cues from the Fed
The US dollar continues its mixed performance. The fragile stability of commodity prices today is not lending much support to the Australian and New Zealand dollars though the Canadian dollar is flat after yesterday’s slide.
The euro has pushed above $1.09 for the first time this week. We had suggested a $1.08-$1.10 range would likely dominate this week. Technically, it appears poised to test the upper end of that range. Stops above the $1.1010 retracement objective could carry the euro toward $1.11.
Labor Department Admits Weak Economy for Most Americans
After some economists and analysts criticized the Obama administration for doing too little to stimulate job growth, U.S. Secretary of Labor admitted that most Americans are struggling even as the economy gains strength.
China’s Migrants Show Great Economic Potential
China’s economy has entered a ‘new normal’, slower growth pattern. In addition, consumption is touted to play a more significant role in boosting economic development. The potential is large. However, if it has to be achieved, the Chinese government needs to focus on unlocking the consumption potential of migrant workers who are a major driver of structural change and urbanisation in the Chinese economy.
Emerging Markets: Same Conditions, Different Day
EM starts the week off in the familiar position of coming under pressure. The strong US jobs report has all but cemented a Fed lift-off this month, helping the dollar to claw back some of its post-ECB losses. Meanwhile, commodities continue to sink under the prospects of increased supply. Brent oil in particular is making new cycle lows after last week’s OPEC meeting saw the quota system basically scrapped. These factors all continue to conspire against EM assets in a broad fashion.
When $87 Billion is not a lot of Money
Economists expected China’s reserves to fall by around $33 bln in November. Instead, they fell by a little more than $87 bln. This is the third largest decline it has recorded, and a little below the $94 bln drop reported in August.
China’s reserves peaked in June 2014 near $3.993 trillion. At the end of November, they were just above $3.438 trillion, which is essentially where they stood in October 2014. What happened in November?
U.S. Employment Surge Boosts Optimism
In November, a strong increase in payrolls and a steady unemployment rate indicate the U.S. may approach full employment in the near future.
The country added 211,000 non-farm payrolls in November, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said in a report. While this represents a decline from the 298,000 payrolls added in October, it brings the 4-month average to 269,250—a historically high number that may indicate unemployment rates will begin to fall in 2016.
It was a Big Week for China and Brazil
1) The Chinese yuan will be in the SDR. 2) Brazil had one of the most important weeks of the year, and possibly of its history. 3) Russia enacted sanctions against Turkey, while Turkey got a deal from the EU. 4) Moody’s raised Russia’s credit-rating outlook to stable from negative.
In the EM equity space, China (+2.6%), Taiwan (0.0%), and Israel (+0.0%) outperformed over the last week, while Poland (-5.4%), South Africa (-4.6%), and Chile (-3.3%) have underperformed.
